Europe open – Davos, Corovavirus, BoC, gold, oil

Davos Diverts Attention From BoC and Earnings

It’s a mixed bag across Europe on Wednesday, with much of the headlines coming from Davos where Trump delivered his keynote speech yesterday.

Source – Thomson Reuters Eikon

It’s always interesting to hear the views of some of the world’s most influential people at these events but so far, as many expected, it’s having little impact on the markets. It was interesting to hear the President once again blaming the Fed for the slower economy and Dow not being another 10,000 points higher, something I expect we’ll hear repeated over and over again this year.

Fear around the spread of coronavirus is not yet having any real impact on markets outside of China but with reports of cases appearing outside the country, that may change. It’s difficult to say at this stage how much and quickly it will spread but everyone is clearly very alert to the prospect of this becoming a much greater problem.

While much of the headlines will continue to come from Davos today, it is worth noting that another batch of companies will report on the fourth quarter today including Johnson & Johnson. The Bank of Canada will also announce its interest rate decision, although no change is expected today or for the rest of the year, in fact. That could change though and the statement and press conference will tell us if any shift on the committee is happening.

Path of least resistance lower for gold

Gold’s rally on Tuesday didn’t last long, a further sign that we’re likely trading at the upper end of its range at the moment. The spike earlier this year was driven by increased geopolitical risk and even then, it struggled to break $1,600. The path of least resistance may therefore be below, although for now it is clinging onto the hard-fought gains of the last couple of weeks.

Gold Daily Chart

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Oil testing $64 after failing at $66

Oil prices are pulling back again today, after running quickly low on fuel on the run up to $66. Heightened middle east risk earlier this year saw it briefly top $70 but that was quickly sold into, affirming its place as a major level of resistance. We’ve struggled to get close since and $66 now appears to represent a ceiling. The next level of interest is now $64, where price found support in the aftermath of the events in Iran and Iraq.

Brent Daily Chart

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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Currency Analyst at OANDA
Based in London, England, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a Market Analyst. With more than five years' experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while conducting macroeconomic commentary. He has been published by The Financial Times, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Telegraph, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Sky News, Bloomberg, CNBC and BBC. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and he is recognized as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.