Headline number beats estimates
The Australian economy added 39,900 jobs in November, far more than the 14,000 economists had anticipated and the biggest jump since August 2018. Taking some of the shine off the headline were the details, which showed only 4,200 full-time jobs made up the total with the rest being part time. In addition, the previous month’s data was revised lower, with the employment change more negative at -24,800 from -19,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped to 5.2% from 5.3%, with the participation rate holding steady at 66.0%.
AUD/USD jumped immediately after the data, rising as much as 0.4% to 0.6882. The pair is now at 0.6869 and seemingly lacks momentum to challenge the 200-day moving average at 0.6906 again.
AUD/USD Daily Chart
Kiwi spikes up on GDP data
NZD/USD matched the highest levels of the week early this morning as New Zealand’s GDP growth beat expectations in the third quarter. However, downward revisions to prior data took the wind out of the kiwi’s sails. The New Zealand economy expanded 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, faster than the 0.6% economists had expected. However, Q2 GDP growth was downgraded to +0.1% q/q from +0.5% at the prior estimate.
NZD/USD jumped to a high of 0.6615, but the gains were only fleeting as the Q2 revision came in. The FX pair is now at 0.6589 but remains comfortably above the 200-day moving average at 0.6531.
NZD/USD Daily Chart
The House of Representatives voted to impeach US President Trump on two counts, abuse of power and obstruction. The Senate is expected to start its part of the impeachment trial in January, though it seems doubtful at this stage that the Republican-dominated Senate will support the motion, which would be required to remove Trump from office.
Markets reacted quite nonchalantly to the news, with US indices slipping between 0.04% and 0.19%, China shares fell 0.08% while the HongKong33 index under-performed with losses of 0.54%.
BOJ stays on hold, BOE expected to do the same
There are two central bank meetings today, and neither is expected to spring any pre-Christmas surprise. The Bank of Japan left rates and asset-buying programmes unchanged, hoping the current stimulus and accommodative stance will be enough to get the Japan economy going again. The Bank of England is expected to sit on its collective hands until Brexit is finalized and in place.
Other data include UK November retail sales, the US Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey for December and existing home sales for November. ECB’s Lane closes off the day with a speech.
The full MarketPulse data calendar can be viewed at https://www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/
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