Oil rises on hopes of OPEC cut extension, U.S.-China trade deal

Oil prices rose nearly 2% on Thursday following a Reuters report that OPEC and its allies are likely to extend output cuts until mid-2020, while fresh signs emerged that China had invited U.S. trade negotiators for a new round of talks.

Brent crude LCOc1 was up $1.11, or 1.8%, at $63.51 a barrel by 11:14 a.m. ET (1614 GMT), while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 rose $1.04, or 1.8%, to $58.05.

To support oil prices, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are likely to extend output cuts to June when they meet next month, according to OPEC sources.

OPEC meets on Dec. 5 at its headquarters in Vienna, followed by talks with a group of other oil producers, lead by Russia, known as OPEC+. The current supply cuts deal runs through to March 2020.

The sources told Reuters that formally announcing deeper cuts looked unlikely for now although a message about better compliance with existing curbs could be sent to the market.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday Russia and OPEC had “a common goal” of keeping the oil market balanced and predictable, and Moscow would continue cooperation under a global deal cutting oil supply.

Also supportive for the markets, the Chinese commerce ministry said China will strive to reach an initial trade agreement with the United States as both sides keep communication channels open.

A Reuters report on Wednesday said completion of a “phase one” U.S.-China trade deal could slide into next year.

Amid the long-drawn trade war between the United States and China, U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to sign two bills passed by Congress intended to support protesters in Hong Kong, a move likely to anger China.

Hong Kong has seen increasingly violent protests against Chinese rule for several months and the passage of the bills could potentially undermine efforts to secure a trade deal.

“Positive speak from China is not offsetting expectations that President Trump will sign a bill supporting Hong Kong protesters,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York.

“The timing of phase one deal is unclear, but markets are starting to get nervous we could see a repeat of the collapse in talks that took place in May.”

The Wall Street Journal also reported on Thursday that China had invited top U.S. trade negotiators for a new round of talks in Beijing, citing unnamed sources.

A report in the South China Morning Post said the United States could delay tariffs on Chinese imports even if a deal was not reached by Dec. 15.


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Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Senior Market Analyst, The Americas at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a senior market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute intermarket analysis, coverage of geopolitical events, central bank policies and market reaction to corporate news. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business and Sky TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most renowned global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Breitbart, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
Ed Moya