The upcoming week will focus heavily on incremental trade updates, German economic data, an RBA rate decision, Bank of England policy meeting that comes with updated economic forecasts and the beginning of campaign season for Britain’s first December general election since 1923. While investors are skeptical that China and the US will reach a broader deal, we could see risk appetite benefit on the news that Trump and Xi will find a new site for the signing of the Phase-One deal.
Brexit will dominate the UK headlines as we wait to find out whether Boris Johnson can deliver a strong election result on December 12th. Johnson needs to avoid another gridlocked Parliament in order to get a Brexit deal done. Boris Johnson will look to grow his double-digit lead over Labour, but concerns are growing he will split some of the pro-Brexit vote to Farage’s party.
Another peak earnings season week will deliver updates from Softbank, Qualcomm, Baidu, Siemens, Ryanair, BMW, Uber, Toyota, Honda, Adidas, CVS, Walt Disney, CVS, and Occidental Petroleum.
November 4th, 2019
Central Banks this week (for currencies that we offer):
Monday –RBA Rate Decision
Tuesday – Riksbank publishes minutes of October 23rd meeting
Wednesday – Bank of Thailand Rate Decision (expected to cut rates by 25bps to 1.25%), Poland Rate Decision (no change expected)
Thursday – BOE Rate Decision, Inflation Report
Friday – No meetings
World leaders, Central Bank Speakers and Energy Ministers (at the time of writing)
Monday – No speeches
Tuesday – OPEC releases its World Oil Outlook, China President Xi Jinping speaks at Shanghai Expo, Fed’s Kashkari and Kaplan speak, ECB’s Villeroy speaks in Lyon
Wednesday – ECB Forum on Banking Supervision
Thursday – BOE Gov Carney Rate Press Conf, Fed’s Kaplan and Bostic speak, European Commission publishes its economic forecasts
Friday – Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry speaks in Ottawa, Fed’s Daly speaks at research conference.
After a third consecutive rate cut, the Fed is now on hold. Trade remains the primary catalyst for risk appetite and optimism is high for the phase-one deal to get done this month. Doubts are high for a broader deal, but we could see marginal progress keep risk appetite pressure on safe-havens including the US dollar. With a strong US consumer and a labor market that remains healthy, the US continues to seem poised to have the economy grow around 2%. For the next major leg of dollar weakness, we may need a rebound in Europe or significant weakness with the US consumer.
A dollar top was put in October and we could see further weakness for the greenback in the short-term.
Once again this is expected to largely be a non-event, with the press conference after likely to draw a lot of questions around Mark Carney’s term, which is scheduled to end at the end of January, when the UK leaves the EU. Already people are discussing whether this should be extended.
The interest rate decision itself won’t be up to much, with markets heavily pricing in no change. As ever, the inflation report will hold the clues, with Boris Johnson’s deal enabling the smooth Brexit that the BoE has long based their assumptions on.
China’s openness to Blockchain saved Bitcoin in October. Regulatory hurdles will take years to develop, so for now, Bitcoin remains king in the digital coin space. It seems the $7,500 to $10,000 range is firmly in place, with investor appetite slowly returning for cryptos.
Oil continues to trade in a range as rising supply concerns cap any rallies we see driven on optimism for demand. Remains vulnerable to global growth worries and further attacks in the middle east.
Gold has mixed flows ETF investors have turned bullish while futures trades are bears. Despite a blowout US nonfarm payroll and trade optimism for a phase-one deal to get done this month, gold remains supported on macro risks to the global outlook. If gold breaks out above $1,550 an ounce, watch out, we could see bullish momentum takeover.
Brexit is on hold and the UK is in election mode as Boris Johnson works to secure the majority that will enable him to get his deal ratified by Parliament before 31 January. This is the most unpredictable election in decades with voters forced in many cases to choose between party allegiance and Brexit. This creates the perfect void that the Brexit party and Liberal Democrats have all-too-happily filled. The Conservatives remain favourites to secure a majority in Parliament but ultimately it comes down to what group will get over the line, the second referendumers/revokers or those fully committed to leaving on 31 January, whether with Boris’ deal or none. It will be close and there could be a few surprises on 12 December. Until then, markets are looking very relaxed with the pound continue to hover around post-deal highs, around 1.30 against the dollar.
No deal risks may have receded, alleviating pressure on the currency but a new headwind my materialise if Corbyn can repeat his surge in 2017. This wasn’t enough to stop May then but it did prevent a Conservative majority. A Labour led coalition government may still be a big concern for markets.
Impeachment inquiries or the narrowing of the Democratic field will likely see limited impact in the short-term. Candidates Warren and Sanders continue to make calls for stronger action on powerful tech companies. If we see a progressive Democratic nominee, this will weigh on stocks and in particular, Amazon and Facebook.
BOJ unchanged. In watch and wait mode. Industrial Production rose but data generally average to poor. Two minsters resigned over improper donations. Trade sensitive. BOJ running out of monetary options. No other significant impact.
HK Adv. Gdp growth slumps to -3.2%, officially in recession. HKMA cuts rates after FOMC. HSBC cuts prime lending rate for 1st time in 11 years. China direct intervention remote. Early signs capital flight as Singapore offshore deposits rise. Ongoing violent protests.
It all comes down to whether US and China can agree terms to the “Phase One” trade deal ahead of a scheduled meeting between Xi and Trump next month. China official PMI lower at 49.3 with Caixan PMI Friday. V. Bad number. China Industrial Profits fell. Weak economic data out of China has a serious knock-on effect for most of Asia, who rely heavily on exports to China. It’s also likely to filter down to slower global growth.
No News. No direct impact for markets at the moment.
Continued soft data from Malaysia as it suffers budgetary constraints and trade war fallout. Negara policy decision next week. Likely to cut after the FOMC cut. Capital flight if EM cannot rally on interim trade deal or US/China relations worsen.
Australia home sales to rise 7.3% PPI stuck at 0.4% Aussie retail sales Sunday and PMI Mondy key indicators for RBA. Very trade sensitive. Risk of housing bubble as high street shopping sector collapses.
Now that the elections are over, Argentina’s new leadership could explore more unconventional measures to support the economy. One idea that is getting some momentum is the idea of dollarization. Argentina always seems to be flirting with economic emergencies over most Argentineans lifetimes. This would be a nuclear option, that could help bring back economic integrity to Buenos Aires.
A default on its debt by Argentina is not a new item, but it has gained traction despite the best efforts of the current government, the IMF and even the candidate most likely to lead the next government. Contagion risks are high as confidence in the region would suffer if the US-China trade war remains active. The IMF will not make a decision until holding formal talks with Fernandez, with uncertainty remaining high.
Chile’s cancellation of the APEC summit showed the world that President Pinera is nowhere near controlling the social unrest. Chile’s peso fell to a 16 year low and further pressure could be on the horizon as no end is in site for this wave of protests. If protests continue, Chilean markets will continue to suffer despite improved risk appetite. Copper prices have risen as Chilean mine union have joined the protests by halting production on certain dates. Chile is a major producer of the red metal.
The Brazilian government is continuing to make strong efforts to boost the economy with a new economic package. The October 30th rate decision delivered another 50bps rate cut, with policymakers emphasizing benign inflation paves the way for further policy adjustment. The BCB is expected to cut again in December.
Moody’s expected downgrade of South Africa’s credit outlook to negative should come as no surprise to investors following the release of their budget. Investors might try to buy the rand on a dip as South African assets still provide a strong advantage for their fixed income market.
Sunday, November 3rd
8:30pm AUD Retail Sales M/M: 0.4%e v 0.4% prior
Monday, November 4th
3:45am-4:00am EUR Major European Final Manufacturing Data
4:30am GBP Construction PMI: No est v 43.3 prior
4:30am EUR Sentix Investor Confidence: No est v -16.8 prior
10:00am USD Factory Orders M/M: -0.4%e v -0.1% prior
8:45pm China Caixin PMI Services M/M: 51.5e v 51.3 prior
10:30pm AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision: Widely expected to keep rates steady
Tuesday, November 5th
4:30am GBP UK Services PMI: 49.8e v 49.5 prior
8:30am USD Trade Balance: -$53.0Be v -$54.9B prior
8:30am CAD Int’l Merchandise Trade: No est v -0.96B prior
10:00am USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: 53.5e v 52.6 prior
10:00am UDS Jolts Job Openings: No est v 7051 prior
4:45pm NZD Unemployment Rate: 4.1%e v 3.9% prior
7:30pm JPY Japan Final PMI Services: No est v 50.3 prelim
Wednesday, November 6th
2:00am EUR Germany Factor Orders M/M: -0.1%e v -0.6% prior
3:45am-4:00am EUR Major European Services PMI data
5:00am EUR Euro Zone Retail Sales M/M: 0.0%e v 0.3% prior
8:30am USD Prelim Nonfarm Productivity Q/Q: 0.8%e v 2.3% prior
10:00am CAD Ivey PMI: No est v 48.7 prior
10:30am Crude Oil Inventory Report
7:30pm AUD Trade Balance (A$): 5.1Be v 5.9B prior
Thursday, November 7th
2:00am EUR German Industrial Production M/M: -0.5%e v +0.3% prior
3:30am EUR German Construction PMI: No est v 50.1 prior
4:00am EUR Italy Retail Sales M/M: No est v -0.6% prior
4:00am EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
5:00am EUR EU Commission Economic Forecasts
6:00am ZAR South Africa Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.2%e v +1.3% prior
7:00am GBP BOE Interest Rate Decision: No changes in policy expected
8:30am USD Jobless Claims: No est v 218K prior
Friday, November 8th
CNY China Trade Data
2:00am EUR German Trade Balance: No est v €16.2B prior
2:45am EUR France Industrial Production M/M: 0.0%e v -0.9% prior
8:15am CAD Housing Starts: No est v 221.2K prior
8:30am CAD Employment Change: No est v 53.7K prior
10:00am USD Prelim University of Michigan Sentiment: 96.0e v 95.5 prior
8:30pm CNY China CPI Y/Y: 3.0%e v 3.0% prior
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