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European open – Markets in reflection mode

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Quiet end to the week

It may be a relatively quiet end to the week as traders digest the last two days of Powell’s testimony and US data and weigh up the prospects for interest rates this year.

Source – Thomson Reuters Eikon

Powell’s appearance Wednesday was extremely well received, with the Fed Chairman giving us as dovish a message as he was ever likely to. There was no attempt to discourage investors from fully pricing in a July cut so that looks as close to a certainty as you can expect to see.

Investors appear encouraged that it won’t be the last as well, with his gloomier assessment of the outlook appearing an indication of future cuts. The CPI numbers on Thursday added a layer of confusion, as weak price pressures are one of the primary factors supporting calls for cuts.

US Inflation (CPI and Core CPI)

A core annual inflation reading of 2.1% may well leave people wondering whether inflation is as lacking as Powell indicated and the Fed’s preferred PCE measure suggests.

Stocks ended the day higher on Thursday and Europe is slightly in positive territory at the open but the data yesterday did take some of the wind out of the sails.

This may put more emphasis on the PPI data today but broadly speaking it’s looking a little thin. Thankfully, Monday marks the start of earnings season so we won’t have to wait long for something to get our teeth into.

Economic Calendar

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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Former Craig

Former Craig

Former Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
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