Daily Markets Broadcast 2019-07-11

Daily Markets Broadcast

2019-07-11

Stocks rise as Powell signals a rate cut

Powell’s testimony to Congress had a dovish bias, suggesting a rate cut is coming, possibly as early as this month. The SPX500 index hit a record high, briefly touching above 3,000. Bank of Canada kept rates unchanged while oil reached a three-week high.

US30USD Daily Chart

Source: OANDA fxTrade

• The US30 index snapped a three-day losing streak yesterday after Powell said trade war and global growth uncertainties outweighed the strong labour market, signaling a rate cut is on the way
• The 100-day moving average at 26,067 is edging closer to the 55-day average at 26,117
• FOMC minutes of the last meeting showed most members considered a rate cut warranted in the near term if recent global trade issues continue to weigh on the outlook. US CPI data for June are due today and seen rising 0.2% m/m, up from +0.1% in May. A lower-than-expected number would almost cement a rate cut later this month.

DE30EUR Daily Chart

Source: OANDA fxTrade

• The Germany30 index fell for a fifth day yesterday, ignoring the euphoria on Wall Street. The index appears to be bringing that losing streak to a halt today
• The index slid to a near-two week low yesterday, posting the biggest daily loss since June 21. The 55-day moving average is at 12,202
• German consumer prices are expected to rise 0.3% m/m and 1.6% y/y in June, the latest survey of economists shows. ECB’s Coeure is scheduled to speak.

WTICOUSD Daily Chart

Source: OANDA fxTrade

• Crude oil prices jumped the most in three weeks yesterday, with WTI touching the highest since May 23 this morning
• WTI is testing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the April-June decline at $60.38
• Weekly stockpiles data to July 5 from EIA confirmed a pickup in demand with a drawdown of 9.5 million barrels, the second-largest reduction since March. Oil supply could be affected by a potential hurricane building in the Gulf of Mexico.

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