Stocks shrug off Middle East tensions

US stocks are looking to open higher despite increased tensions between US and Iran.  Markets are clinging to the belief that despite all the hard talk and threats, that President Trump will not take the US to war.  Iran has been very calculated with their attacks and appears they are not likely to deliver an attack that will cause the loss of US life.  Trump would be forced to deliver a retaliatory strike if Iran attacked a warship or shot down a US plane, but that still seems to be a remote risk.

Today, the US is expected to announce new sanctions against Iran.  President Trump tweeted on Saturday that “We are putting major additional sanctions on Iran Monday.”  At the end of last week Trump called off retaliatory attack for the downing of a $130 million US drone.  Trump however is willing to hold talks with Iran, so we could see the recent pattern of escalation ease up at the start of the week.

Markets will also focus on the G20 which kicks off in Osaka from June 28th-29th.  Trump and Xi are expected to meet and while trade remains the markets focal point, many will look to see if the recent Hong Kong protests will become a key issue.  Over the weekend, China announced a hard line that they will not allow Hong Kong to be discussed at the G20.

The dollar is mixed in early trade with gains against Japanese yen and British pound, while trading lower to the euro, franc, and commodity currencies.

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Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Senior Market Analyst at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute fundamental analysis of geo-political events and monetary policies in the US, Europe, the Middle East and North Africa. Over the course of his career, he has worked with some of the world’s leading forex brokerages and research departments including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including BNN, CNBC, Fox Business, and Bloomberg. He is often quoted in leading print and online publications such as the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post. He holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University. Follow Ed on Twitter @edjmoya ‏
Ed Moya