Trade War Deal More Important than Fed Cut

Art Hogan is more worried about the U.S.-China trade war than whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates.

Hogan, National Securities’ chief market strategist, believes the Fed made the right decision Wednesday to communicate openness to cutting rates at its next meetings.

But Hogan warns that won’t be enough to stymie a market drop from trade war fallout.

“We’re back at a point where it’s really trade policy that’s driving everything,” he told CNBC’s “Trading Nation ” on Wednesday. “If we’re able to accomplish a deal with China on trade before the end of this year, the Fed may not have to lower rates at all.”

Hogan, who pushed the pause button on his bullish market stance in January, contends pinning hopes of a sustainable S&P 500 rally on an accommodative Fed is the wrong place to be.

“They don’t have enough negative economic data in the here and now to be cutting rates. If they were to cut in July, let’s say, that would still be an insurance cut,” said Hogan. “I just don’t think they have enough ammunition in their back pocket to be wasting any right now.”

via CNBC

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza