S&P 500 trades in record territory as Fed abandons patient policy

U.S. stock indexes late-morning Thursday extended gains to a fourth straight day, testing fresh records, but off their highest levels, after the Federal Reserve signaled that policy easing may be forthcoming.

How are benchmarks faring?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.59% rose 191 points, or 0.7%, to 27,735, marking its highest trading level since Oct.3. The S&P 500 index SPX, +0.53% gained 21 points, or 0.7%, to 2,947, trading above its April 30 closing record at 2,945.83 and touching a new intraday peak at 2,956.20 earlier in the session, surpassing its May 1 intraday record. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +0.53% climbed 62 points, or 0.8%, trading within 2% from its May 3 closing high at 8,164.

What’s driving the market?
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday strongly implied that the central bank would cut benchmark interest rates, currently at a range of 2.25%-2.50%, in the coming weeks if the economic outlook buffeted by U.S.-China trade tensions doesn’t show signs of improvement.

“The case for somewhat more accommodative policy has strengthened,” Powell said at a news conference on Wednesday to discuss the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee’s highly anticipated decision. Policy makers kept rates unchanged as expected but removed the word “patient” from its updated policy statement, suggesting that it is ready to act soon.

Although markets have been widely anticipating that the Fed would respond to growing signs of stress in the economy, the central bank’s posture on looser monetary policy was seen as providing a strong case for the continued rise in stocks despite concerns about lurking economic problems.

The Fed remained mostly optimistic about the outlook, but said inflationary pressures have receded, compelling it to lower its forecast for PCE inflation in 2019 to 1.5% from 1.8%, below its 2% target. At the same time, it left its gross domestic product estimate at 2.1%.

Curiously low inflation has been often cited by FOMC members as one of the key reasons for its doubts about its monetary policy path. The Fed next meets July 30-31, while President Donald Trump is expected to speak to Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the coming Group of 20 meeting of well-developed nations in Japan in late June, where a detente on trade policy could be reached.

Dovish rhetoric from central-bank policy makers across the globe this week has helped to send commodity prices, and particularly gold, rocketing higher, with heightened expectation that interest rates, which can undercut appetite for bullion, will could be lowered.

Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda and the Bank of England on Thursday, joined the chorus of bankers including Powell and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, signaling a readiness to increase stimulus should global risks at least partly spurred by trade, worsen.

The BOJ’s Kuroda said “we’ll of course consider expanding stimulus without hesitation,” he told a news conference, according to Reuters.

Which data are in focus?
The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index in June fell to just 0.3 after registering a four-month high of 16.6 in the prior month. Any reading above zero indicates improving conditions. Economists polled by MarketWatch expected an 8 reading.

Initial jobless claims, a rough way to measure layoffs, fell by 6,000 to 216,000 in the seven days ended June 15, the government said Thursday.

What are strategists saying?
“Powell’s press conference [on Wednesday] showed some reluctance, but it seems markets are certain the Fed will cut in July. If data deterioration is worst than expected, calls for a 50-basis cut at the July meeting will grow in the coming weeks,” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda in a daily research note.

Which stocks are in focus
Slack Technologies Inc. WORK, +0.00% is set to make its debut on the New York Stock Exchange in an unusual direct listing of the enterprise software company. Here’s what you should know. The direct listing was expected to hit just before 1 p.m. Eastern time.

How are other assets trading?
Before the U.S. markets opened on Thursday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HSI, +1.23% rose 1.2% and China’s Shanghai Composite Index SHCOMP, +2.38% rallied by 2.4%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 NIK, +0.60% meanwhile, closed up 0.6%, while in Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 SXXP, +0.49% traded 0.6% higher.

Gold futures GCQ19, +2.97% meanwhile, surged 3%, to the highest level since 2013 at $1,388.60 an ounce, while the 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, -2.29% touched a yield below 2%, and the U.S. dollar, as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, -0.36% fell 0.5% to 96.67.

Crude-oil prices CLU19, +5.40% surged, up more than 5% amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Iran says it shot down a U.S. drone in its airspace and Trump issued a cryptic tweetm saying that Iran “made a very big mistake.”


This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Senior Market Analyst, The Americas at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a senior market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute intermarket analysis, coverage of geopolitical events, central bank policies and market reaction to corporate news. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business and Sky TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most renowned global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Breitbart, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
Ed Moya