NZD/USD – NZ dollar slides on soft Chinese data

The New Zealand dollar continues to lose ground, as NZD/USD has dropped 0.75% on Friday. In North American trade, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6516, down 0.75% on the day. In New Zealand, the Business NZ manufacturing index slowed to 50.3 in May, down from 53.0 in April. This points to stagnation in the manufacturing sector. On the inflation front, the Food Price Index rebounded with a gain of 0.7%, its strongest gain in four months. In the U.S., consumer spending numbers improved in May. Core retail sales climbed 0.5%, matching the estimate. Retail sales also improved to 0.5%, but fell shy of the forecast of 0.7%. The week winded up with UoM Consumer Sentiment, which dropped to 97.9, just below the estimate of 98.1. This was significantly weaker than the previous release of 102.4.

Chinese data continues to point to a deep slowdown in China. This has weighed heavily on the New Zealand dollar, as the Asian giant is New Zealand’s largest trade partner. Chinese industrial output was unexpectedly soft, dropping to its lowest level since 2002. The indicator gained 5.0% in May on an annualized basis, well off the forecast of 5.5%. The soft release followed a report that Chinese auto sales plunged 16.4% in May, its worst monthly decline on record. This marked an 11th successive decline and comes after a 14.6% drop in April. These weak Chinese numbers are reflective of the slowdown which has gripped the Chinese economy, and investors remain concerned, as the trade war with the U.S. shows no signs of easing.

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NZD/USD Fundamentals

Thursday (June 13)

  • 18:30 New Zealand Business NZ Manufacturing Index. Actual 50.2
  • 18:45 Food Price Index. Actual 0.7%

Friday (June 14)

  • 8:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.5%. Actual 0.5%
  • 8:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.7%. Actual 0.5%
  • 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate. Estimate 78.0%. Actual 78.1%
  • 9:15 Industrial Production. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.4%
  • 10:00 US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 98.1. Actual 97.9
  • 10:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.5%
  • 10:00 US Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations. Actual 2.6%

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

NZD/USD for Friday, June 14, 2019

NZD/USD June 14 at 10:10 DST

Open: 0.6566 Low: 0.6573 High: 0.6509 Close: 0.6516

NZD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.6237 0.6348 0.6424 0.6539 06607 0.6699

In the Asian session, NZD/USD recorded considerable losses. The pair posted slight gains in European trade but then retracted. The downward trend has resumed in the North American session.

  • 0.6424 is providing support
  • 0.6539 has switched to a resistance line after sharp losses by NZD/USD on Friday
  • Current range: 0.6424 to 0.6539

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.6424, 0.6348 and 0.6237
  • Above: 0.6539, 0.6607, 0.6699 and 0.7055

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.