AUD/USD – Aussie slips to 2-week low as unemployment rate misses forecast

AUD/USD has edged lower in the Thursday session. In North American trade, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6914, down 0.22% on the day. On the release front, Australian MI Inflation Expectations remained steady at 3.3%. Australian employment numbers were mixed. The economy created 42.3 thousand in May, which marked a 9-month high. However, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.2%, above the estimate of 5.1%. In the U.S., unemployment claims was unexpectedly high, climbing to 222 thousand. This was the highest reading in five weeks. On Friday, the U.S. releases retail sales and consumer confidence reports.

Australian consumers are pessimistic, according to the Westpac Consumer Confidence indicator. The survey declined in June by 0.6%. This was a disappointment, as analysts had hoped that the recent RBA rate cut would energize the economy and improve consumer confidence. There was better news from the business sector, as the NAB business confidence survey climbed to 7 points in May. Aside from the rate cut, the business sector was pleased with the shock victory of the conservative coalition in the general election last month, as the conservatives have a business-friendly stance.

In the U.S., consumer inflation remained soft in May. CPI slowed to 0.1%, down from 0.3% in the previous release. This matched the estimate. The core reading posted a gain of 0.1% for a fourth straight month, shy of the forecast of 0.2%. With the May inflation numbers remaining low, there could be more pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates in order to boost economic activity and inflation. The likelihood of further rates this year is increasing – the CME Group has set the odds of a July cut at 66% and another cut in September at 50%. Lower interest rates make the U.S. dollar less attractive to investors, so investors will be keeping an eye at alternative assets.

Aussie drops on stubborn unemployment

AUD/USD Fundamentals

Wednesday (June 12)

  • 21:00 Australian MI Inflation Expectations. Actual 3.3%
  • 21:30 Australian Employment Change. Estimate 16.0K. Actual 42.3K
  • 21:30 Australian Unemployment Rate. Estimate 5.1%. Actual 5.2%

Thursday (June 13)

  • 8:30 US Import Prices. Estimate -0.3%
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 215K
  • 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage
  • 13:01 US 30-year Bond Auction

Friday (June 14)

  • 8:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.5%
  • 8:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.7%
  • 10:00 US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 98.1

*All release times are DST

* Key events are in bold

AUD/USD for Thursday, June 13, 2019

AUD/USD June 13 at 8:40 DST

Open: 0.6929 High: 0.6939 Low: 0.6902 Close: 0.6914

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.6686 0.6744 0.6825 0.6968 0.7085 0.7190

AUD/USD edged lower in the Asian session and has ticked upwards in the European session

  • 0.6825 is providing support
  • 0.6968 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 0.6825 to 0.6968

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.6825, 0.6744 and 0.6686
  • Above: 0.6968, 0.7085, 0.7190 and 0.7240

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.
Kenny Fisher

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