Trade War Derailed Oil Rally According to RBC

RBC Capital Markets’ Helima Croft blames the U.S.-China trade war for oil’s drop into bear market territory.

According to the firm’s global head of commodity research, bullish sentiment around crude has been damaged by global growth fears sparked by tensions between Washington and Beijing.

“What is the demand driver for oil? It’s China. There is a real fear of a slump in Chinese oil demand growth,” she told CNBC’s “Futures Now ” on Thursday. “One of the things that has kept this market tight this year has been really high Chinese oil imports.”


Brent crude graph

Without a sign that President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are closing in on a resolution, she contends the commodity will continue to struggle.

Croft, a CNBC contributor, contends Trump’s May 5 tweet that indicated a trade deal wasn’t close anymore stopped the oil rally cold.


West Texas Intermediate graph

“Oil was moving higher, you know, the first part of May, and then you had the trade war resume,” she added.

via CNBC

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza