EUR/USD – Euro steady ahead of ECB rate decision

EUR/USD has ticked higher in the Thursday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1237, up 0.14% on the day. On the release front, German Factory Orders slowed to 0.3%, above the estimate of 0.1%. Eurozone GDP improved to 0.4%, matching the estimate. Later in the day, the ECB releases its key interest rate, which is expected to remain at a flat 0.00%. In the U.S., the key event is unemployment claims, which is projected to remain steady at 215 thousand. On Friday, the U.S. releases nonfarm payrolls and wage growth.

All eyes are on the ECB, which holds its policy meeting on Thursday. With policymakers expected to hold rates at 0.00%, investors will be focused on the policy statement, and follow-up comments from Mario Draghi. Traders should be prepared for a dovish stance at Draghi’s post-meeting press conference. The ECB will also provide new outlooks for inflation and growth. In March, the ECB forecast GDP at 1.1% and inflation at 1.2% in 2019. Will the bank revise the upcoming forecast upwards? If so, investors could respond with a thumbs-up and drive the euro higher.

Since raising rates back in December, the Federal Reserve has sounded neutral with regard to rate movement. However, the passive stance was shattered this week, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinting at a rate cut. On Tuesday, Powell said that the Fed would “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion”. It was also noteworthy that Powell did not mention his “patient” approach to monetary policy, which has been a buzzword in his recent comments. Also this week, St. Louis Fed president said that the Fed might have to lower rates shortly due to low inflation and the ongoing trade war with China.

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EUR/USD Fundamentals

Thursday (June 6)

• 2:00 German Factory Orders. Estimate 0.1%. Actual 0.3%
  
• 5:00 Eurozone Final Employment Change. Estimate 0.3%. Actual 0.3%
• 5:00 Eurozone Revised GDP. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.4%
  
• 5:12 French 10-year Bond Auction. Actual 0.14/2.6
• 7:30 US Challenger Cuts
• 7:45 ECB Monetary Policy Statement
• 7:45 ECB Main Refinancing Rate. Estimate 0.00%
• 8:30 ECB Press Conference
• 8:30 ECB Press Conference
• 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 215K
• 8:30 US Revised Nonfarm Productivity. Estimate 3.6%
• 8:30 US Revised Unit Labor Costs. Estimate -0.9%
• 8:30 US Trade Balance. Estimate -50.5B
• 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 110B
• 13:00 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks

Friday (June 7)

• 2:00 German Industrial Production. Estimate -0.4%
• 2:00 German Trade Balance. Estimate 18.7B
• 8:30 US Average Hourly Earnings. Actual 0.3%
• 8:30 US Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 180K
• 8:30 US Unemployment Rate. Estimate 3.6%

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Thursday, June 6, 2019

EUR/USD for June 6 at 7:15 DST

Open: 1.1221 High: 1.1243 Low: 1.1221 Close: 1.1237

EUR/USD Technical

EUR/USD has posted small gains in the Asian and European sessions

• 1.1212 is a weak support line
• 1.1300 is the next resistance line
• Current range: 1.1212 to 1.1300

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.1212, 1.1120, 1.1046 and 1.0950
• Above: 1.1300, 1.1434 and 1.1553

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