IMF Calculates US-China Tariff War to Cost $455B

The International Monetary Fund has called for a speedy end to the deepening trade war between the United States and China after calculating that the tit-for-tat tariffs will cost $455bn (£357.5bn) in lost output next year – more than the size of South Africa’s economy.

Christine Lagarde, the IMF’s managing director, underlined her organisation’s growing concern at the most serious outbreak of trade tension since the 1930s and said “self-inflicted wounds” had to be avoided.

In a paper prepared for the meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors in Japan this weekend, the IMF calculated that the recently announced intensification of protectionism would cut global gross domestic product by 0.3% in 2020.

The Washington-based IMF said that taken together with the tariffs announced last year the total impact would be a 0.5% hit to activity next year.

“This amounts to a loss of about $455bn, larger than the size of South Africa’s economy,” Lagarde said, noting that there was strong evidence that the US, China and the global economy were the losers from the conflict.

Via The Guardian

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza