AUD/USD – Aussie improves to 3-week high, retail sales next

AUD/USD has moved higher in the Monday session. In North American trade, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6957, up 0.30% on the day. Earlier in the day, the pair touched 0.6966, its highest level since mid-May. On the release front, Australian Company Operating Profits climbed 1.7% in the first quarter, but fell short of the estimate of 2.9%. The MI inflation gauge slowed to 0.0%, down from 0.2% in the previous release. In the U.S., ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 52.1, short of the estimate of 53.0. On Tuesday, Australia releases GDP and the RBA is expected to cut rates to 1.25%. Traders should be prepared for some movement from AUD/USD following these key releases.

The RBA has maintained rates at 1.50%, despite the weaker Australian economy, which has been hurt by the slowdown gripping the Chinese economy. Critics would argue that the bank has been in denial, as bank members have sounded dovish about the economy but haven’t lowered rates in order to stimulate growth. However, the RBA is expected to cut rates to 1.25% at the upcoming meeting. If the rate statement or comments from RBA Governor Lowe are dovish, the Aussie could lose ground.

The U.S. economy continues to perform well, with first-quarter growth above the 3% level. Second estimate GDP posted a gain of 3.1%, matching the estimate. This was just shy of the initial estimate in April, which came in at 3.1%. The U.S. economy is firing on all cylinders, despite the nasty trade war with China, which has escalated in recent weeks. U.S. officials, including President Trump, had announced that substantial progress had been made, and it seemed that a trade deal was just around the corner. However, Trump shocked the markets by slapping further tariffs on China, which led to counter-tariffs against U.S. products. China has reacted angrily to U.S. trade sanctions on Huawei, a giant Chinese telecom company. The euro has managed to weather the latest crisis in the U.S.-China trade war, but if there is no improvement, higher risk apprehension could make the Aussie less attractive to investors.

Escalating Trade Feuds Keep Markets Nervous

Risk aversion continues into the new month

Dollar direction to be dictated by week’s events

AUD/USD Fundamentals

Sunday (June 2)

  • 21:30 Australian Company Operating Profits. Estimate 2.9%. Actual 1.7%
  • 21:30 Australian ANZ Job Advertisements. Actual -8.4%
  • 21:33 Australian MI Inflation Gauge. Actual 0.0%
  • 21:45 Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 50.0. Actual 50.2

Monday (June 3)

  • 2:30 Australian Commodity Prices. Actual 12.6%
  • 9:10 FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
  • 9:45 US Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 50.8. Actual 50.5
  • 10:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 53.0. Actual 52.1
  • 10:00 US Construction Spending. Estimate 0.5%
  • 10:05 ISM Manufacturing Prices. Estimate 51.5
  • All Day – U.S. Wards Total Vehicle Sales. Estimate 16.8M
  • 13:25 US FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
  • 21:30 Australian Retail Sales. Estimate 0.2%
  • 21:30 Australian Current Account. Estimate -2.9B

Tuesday (June 4)

  • 0:30 Australian Cash Rate. Estimate 1.25%
  • 0:30 RBA Rate Statement
  • 5:30 RBA Governor Lowe Speaks
  • 21:30 Australian GDP. Estimate 0.4%

*All release times are DST

* Key events are in bold

AUD/USD for Monday, June 3, 2019

AUD/USD June 3 at 11:25 DST

Open: 0.6927 High: 0.6939 Low: 0.6916 Close: 0.6916

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.6668 0.6744 0.6825 0.6968 0.7085 0.7190

AUD/USD showed little movement in the Asian session. The pair posted small losses in European trade and this trend continues in North American trade

  • 0.6825 is providing support
  • 0.6968 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 0.6825 to 0.6968

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.6825, 0.6744 and 0.6686
  • Above: 0.6968, 0.7085, 0.7190 and 0.7240

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.
Kenny Fisher

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