Prime Minister May’s highly anticipated speech saw cable surge before she took the stage on news she was ready to offer a second referendum. PM May outlined 10 points, but markets primarily cared about the the vote for MPs on whether the deal should be subject to a referendum.
May’s final attempt in getting a Brexit deal passed will struggle to gain support from Labour. May is offering the kitchen sink, and with a second referendum at stake, she is hoping that will appease Labour remainers. If she is able to pull this off, she should not see much objection from the EU.
The problem for the PM is that her latest Brexit proposal is too late. Too many politicians are eyeing her job and she will struggle to get enough votes. Markets want to know if this will be a free vote on her deal, and will she whip against the deal being voted by the public. A lot needs to go right for PM May’s deal and while she has made some meaningful concessions, it is unlikely to pass.
History does not bold well for a second referendum, with MPs voting 280 supporting a confirmatory vote and 292 against it.
The British pound has given back half of its earlier gains as markets learn that the second referendum was conditional on May’s deal passing.
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