Oil could remain resilient against trade jitters

Oil prices saw small moves today as markets await a key update with the US-China trade war.  The pessimistic outlook for global growth should be temporary as both sides remain motivated to push through a deal.  The short-term risks for oil remain to the upside as output at risk remains high due to the sanctions on Venezuelan and Iranian oil, along with disruptions with Libyan crude.

Many analysts see oil markets becoming balanced this year, followed by a deficit in 2020.  Tight supplies should keep oil supported, but growing production from Cushing will likely cap any West Texas Intermediate crude gains above the $70 a barrel level.

In the short-term crude could stabilize further here on tightness with the overall global crude balance and optimism that demand side of the argument will get a boost from eventual trade deal from the Chinese and US.


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Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Senior Market Analyst, The Americas at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a senior market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute intermarket analysis, coverage of geopolitical events, central bank policies and market reaction to corporate news. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business and Sky TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most renowned global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Breitbart, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
Ed Moya