EUR/USD – Euro slightly higher, shrugs off soft German economic outlook

EUR/USD is slightly higher on Tuesday, erasing the gains seen on Monday. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1235, up 0.11% on the day. On the release front, German ZEW Economic Sentiment declined by 2.1, missing the estimate of 5.1. The eurozone release followed the same trend, dropping by 1.6. This was well short of the estimate of 5.0. There was better news from German Final CPI jumped to 1.0%, matching the estimate. There are no major U.S. events on the schedule. On Wednesday, Germany and the eurozone release GDP reports. The U.S. will post retail sales and the Empire State manufacturing index.

The well-respected ZEW economic sentiments disappointed in May. The German release ended a long streak of declines in April, with a gain of 3.1. The indicator slipped to 2.1 in May, pointing to pessimism. Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment posted a decline of 1.6 in May, after a score of 4.5 in April. The economic outlooks for the eurozone and Germany are not promising, as the trade war between China and the U.S. has escalated with another round of tariffs between the sides. The U.S. raised tariffs on some $200 billion in Chinese goods, from 10% to 25%. A response followed quickly, as China announced tariffs on $60 billion in U.S. goods. As well, China has allowed the yuan to fall to its lowest level in four months. A lower yuan makes Chinese exports more competitive and will cushion the effect of the new U.S. tariffs, which makes Chinese goods more expensive for U.S. consumers. Despite the rise in tensions between China and the U.S., the new tariffs do not take effect immediately. The U.S. tariffs do not apply to Chinese goods that are in transit, and the shipping of goods across the Pacific can take up to three weeks. The Chinese tariffs do not kick in until June. This hiatus gives negotiators some breathing room before the tariffs take effect.

Commodities Weekly: Commodities reel under tariff war escalation


EUR/USD Fundamentals

Tuesday (May 14)

  • 2:00 German Final CPI. Estimate 1.0%. Actual 1.0%
  • 2:00 German WPI. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.6%
  • 3:15 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
  • 5:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Estimate 5.1
  • 5:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment. Estimate 5.0
  • 5:00 Eurozone Industrial Production. Estimate -0.3%
  • 6:00 US NFIB Small Business Index. Estimate 102.3
  • 8:30 US Import Prices. Estimate 0.7%
  • 12:45 US FOMC Member George Speaks

Wednesday (May 15)

  • 2:00 German Preliminary GDP. Estimate 0.4%
  • 5:00 Eurozone Flash GDP. Estimate 0.4%
  • 8:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.7%
  • 8:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Estimate 8.2

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Tuesday, May 14, 2019

EUR/USD for May 14 at 6:00 DST

Open: 1.1224 High: 1.1242 Low: 1.1220 Close: 1.1235

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1046 1.1120 1.1212 1.1300 1.1434 1.1553

EUR/USD posted slight gains in the Asian session and is showing limited movement in European trade

  • 1.1212 is providing support
  • 1.1300 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1.1212 to 1.1300

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1212, 1.1120, 1.1046 and 1.0950
  • Above: 1.1300, 1.1434 and 1.1553

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.
Kenny Fisher

Latest posts by Kenny Fisher (see all)