AUD/USD – Australian dollar steadies, key inflation report next

AUD/USD is unchanged on Tuesday, after posting sustaining sharp losses on Monday. Currently, the pair is trading at 0.6944, down 0.01% on the day. On the fundamentals front, there are no major U.S. events. In Australia, NAB Business Confidence stayed stuck at zero for a second successive month. Later in the day, we’ll get a look at Westpac consumer sentiment, which posted a strong gain of 1.9% in April. The wage price index, a key inflation indicator, is forecast to improve from 0.5% to 0.6%. As well, China releases industrial production. On Wednesday, there are key events in the U.S. and Australia. The U.S. releases retail sales reports, while Australia posts employment change and the unemployment rate.

Rising trade tensions between the U.S. and China have rocked the Australian dollar, which fell close to 1.0% on Monday. The Aussie slide was in response to the tariff tussle between China and the U.S. On Friday, the U.S. raised tariffs on some $200 billion in Chinese goods, from 10% to 25%. The Chinese response was vigorous, with Bejing announcing on Monday that it would slap tariffs on $60 billion of U.S products. Despite the rise in tensions between China and the U.S., the new tariffs do not take effect immediately. The U.S. tariffs do not apply to Chinese goods that are in transit, and the shipping of goods across the Pacific can take up to three weeks. The Chinese tariffs do not kick in until June. This hiatus gives negotiators some breathing room before the tariffs take effect.

Earlier on Tuesday, the Australian dollar fell to a new low in 2019, touching a low of 0.6935. The slowdown in China has taken a toll on the Australian economy and the latest round of tariffs has spooked investors and pushed the Australian dollar sharply lower on Monday. If the trade war worsens, the Aussie could fall further.

Commodities Weekly: Commodities reel under tariff war escalation

From BRICS to WOWS

AUD/USD Fundamentals

Monday (May 13)

  • 21:30 Australian NAB Business Confidence. Actual 0

Tuesday (May 14)

  • 6:00 US NFIB Small Business Index. Estimate 102.3. Actual 103.5
  • 8:30 US Import Prices. Estimate 0.7%. Actual 0.2%
  • 12:45 US FOMC Member George Speaks
  • 20:30 Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment
  • 21:30 Australian Wage Price Index. Estimate 0.6%
  • 22:00 Chinese Industrial Production. Estimate 6.5%

Wednesday (May 15)

  • 8:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.7%
  • 8:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Estimate 8.2

*All release times are DST

* Key events are in bold

AUD/USD for Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Open: 0.6943 High: 0.6959 Low: 0.6935 Close: 0.6944

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.67686 0.6744 0.6825 0.6968 0.7085 0.7190

AUD/USD edged higher in the Asian session but gave up these gains in European trade. The pair is showing limited movement in North American trade

  • 0.6825 is providing support
  • 0.6968 is a weak resistance line
  • Current range: 0.6825 to 0.6968

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.6825, 0.6744 and 0.6686
  • Above: 0.6968, 0.7085, 0.7190 and 0.7240

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.