EUR/USD – Euro edges higher, U.S consumer inflation looms

EUR/USD is slightly higher in Friday trade. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1212, up 0.12% on the day. On the release front, Germany’s trade surplus widened to EUR 20.0 billion in March, up from EUR 18.7 billion a month earlier. This is the first time that the trade surplus has exceeded the EUR 20-billion level since May. In the U.S., the focus remains on inflation indicators, with the release of consumer inflation reports. CPI is expected to remain steady at 0.4%, while the core reading is projected to rise from 0.1% to 0.2%.

The trade war saga continues, with an ominous development on Friday. U.S. President Donald Trump made good on his threat to raise tariffs on some $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, from 10% to 25%. Trump announced the move on Sunday and global equity markets have been in flux the entire week, as risk appetite has waned. There had been hopes that the unpredictable U.S. president would change his mind ahead of the midnight Thursday deadline, but those hopes were dashed. China has promised retaliatory measures against the U.S. move. Despite these tensions, a high-level Chinese delegation is in Washington to continue the trade talks, and it is certainly in the interest of both sides to try and reach an agreement.

What can we expect from the Federal Reserve, which has kept a low profile? At last week’s policy meeting, the Fed maintained its key interest rate and indicated that it was comfortable with current monetary policy and had no plans to raise or lower rates in the coming months. However, the U.S. economy has exceeded expectations, with a sparkling GDP of 3.2% in Q1, and a sharp nonfarm payrolls of 263 thousand. Will these sharp numbers make a rate hike more likely? The markets don’t think so. According to the CME Group, there is zero probability that the Fed will raise rates before 2020. Moreover there is a 60% likelihood that the Fed will cut rates before the end of 2019. This sentiment could weigh on the greenback, as rate hikes make the currency more attractive to investors.

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EUR/USD Fundamentals

Friday (May 10)

  • 2:00 German Trade Balance. Estimate 19.4B. Actual 20.0B
  • 2:45 French Industrial Production. Estimate -0.4%. Actual -0.9%
  • 2:45 French Preliminary Private Payrolls. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.3%
  • Italian Industrial Production. Estimate -0.6%. Actual -0.9%
  • Italian Retail Sales. Estimate 0.3%
  • 8:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.4%
  • 8:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%
  • 10:00 US FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
  • 10:00 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
  • 14:00 US Federal Budget Balance. Estimate -165.2B

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Friday, May 10, 2019

EUR/USD for May 10 at 6:25 DST

Open: 1.1214 High: 1.1238 Low: 1.1214 Close: 1.1228

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1046 1.1120 1.1212 1.1300 1.1434 1.1553

EUR/USD has posted small gains in the Asian and European sessions

  • 1.1212 is providing support
  • 1.1300 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1.1212 to 1.1300

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1212, 1.1120, 1.1046 and 1.0950
  • Above: 1.1300, 1.1434 and 1.1553

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.