EUR/USD – Euro edges higher after rough week, investors relieved at Spanish election outcome

EUR/USD has started the week with gains, after losing close to 1.0% last week. On Monday, the pair is trading at 1.1162, up 0.20% on the day. On the fundamentals front, there are no major German or eurozone events. The U.S. will release Core PCE Price Index and Personal Spending for February and March. The markets are expecting a strong gain of 0.7% for Personal Spending in March. On Tuesday, Germany releases CPI and the eurozone posts GDP. In the U.S., the highlights are Chicago PMI and CB Consumer Confidence.

In Spain, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has led his Socialist party to victory, but he will have to share the spoils in order to form a new government. The Socialists won 123 seats of the 350 seats in Congress, and should be able to form a stable coalition in the next few weeks. The far-right VOX party made gains and will enter parliament, but investors seem pleased with the results, which should ensure stability for the eurozone’s fourth-largest economy.

In the U.S, economic data sparkled late in the week, sending EUR/USD to lower levels. Durable goods orders climbed 2.7%, crushing the estimate of 0.7%. Core durable goods orders gained 0.4%, marking a 9-month high. This was followed by an initial GDP release of 3.2% in Q1, well above the estimate of 2.2%. This was much stronger than Final GDP for Q4, which came in at 2.2%.

Dodging the information avalanche

A massive week for currencies, stocks and bonds

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Monday (April 29)

  • 8:00 Eurozone M3 Money Supply. Estimate 4.2%
  • 8:00 Eurozone Private Loans. Estimate 3.3%
  • 12:30 (Feb. Data) – US Core PCE Price Index. Estimate 0.2%
  • 12:30 US Core PCE Price Index. Estimate 0.1%
  • 12:30 (Feb. Data) – US Personal Spending. Estimate 0.2%
  • 12:30 US Personal Spending. Estimate 0.7%
  • 12:30 US Personal Income. Estimate 0.4%

Tuesday (April 30)

  • 6:00 German GfK Consumer Climate. Estimate 10.3
  • All Day – German Preliminary CPI. Estimate 0.5%
  • 7:55 German Unemployment Change. Estimate -6K
  • 9:00 Eurozone Preliminary Flash GDP. Estimate 0.3%
  • 9:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate. Estimate 7.8%
  • 12:30 US Employment Cost Index. Estimate 0.7%
  • 13:45 US Chicago PMI. Estimate 59.1
  • 14:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Estimate 126.2

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Monday, April 29, 2019

EUR/USD for April 29 at 5:30 DST

Open: 1.1145 High: 1.1166 Low: 1.1145 Close: 1.1162

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.0950 1.1046 1.1120 1.1212 1.1300 1.1434

EUR/USD edged higher in the Asian session and is steady in European trade

  • 1.1120 is providing support
  • 1.1212 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1.1120 to 1.1212

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1120, 1.1046 and 1.0950
  • Above: 1.1212, 1.1300, 1.1434 and 1.1553

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.