AUD/USD is subdued in the Monday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 0.7048, up 0.06% on the day. On the release front, there are no Australian events. Later in the day, China releases manufacturing PMI, which is expected to tick up to 50.7 points in April, after a score of 50.5 in the previous release. The 50-level separates contraction from expansion, so a reading just above 50 points to stagnation. The U.S. releases Core PCE Price Index and Personal Spending for February and March. The markets are expecting a strong gain of 0.7% for Personal Spending in March. On Tuesday, the U.S. releases Chicago PMI and CB Consumer Confidence. Australia will post the AIG manufacturing index.
It was a brutal week for the Aussie, which dropped 1.5 percent. A combination of weak data out of Australia and sharp U.S. numbers sent the currency reeling. Australian CPI slowed to 0.0% in Q1, shy of the estimate of 0.2%. This marked the weakest reading since 2016. Inflation remains well below the RBA’s target band of 2-3%, and this disappointing CPI release underscores concerns that the target band will remain elusive. Soft inflation and a somber RBA have raised speculation that the RBA could lower rates in a bid to stimulate the economy, perhaps as early as this summer. Investors will now shift their attention to China, as the Aussie is sensitive to key Chinese releases. A strong Chinese manufacturing PMI could boost the Australian dollar.
Meanwhile, U.S. numbers impressed late last week, as the U.S. dollar made broad gains. Durable goods orders climbed 2.7%, crushing the estimate of 0.7%. Core durable goods orders gained 0.4%, marking a 9-month high. This was followed by an initial GDP release of 3.2% in Q1, well above the estimate of 2.2%. This was much stronger than Final GDP for Q4, which came in at 2.2%.
Monday (April 29)
- 8:30 (Feb. Data) – US Core PCE Price Index. Estimate 0.2%
- 8:30 US Core PCE Price Index. Estimate 0.1%
- 8:30 (Feb. Data) – US Personal Spending. Estimate 0.2%
- 8:30 US Personal Spending. Estimate 0.7%
- 8:30 US Personal Income. Estimate 0.4%
- 21:00 Chinese Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 50.7
- 21:30 Australian Private Sector Credit. Estimate 0.3%
Tuesday (April 30)
- 8:30 US Employment Cost Index. Estimate 0.7%
- 9:45 US Chicago PMI. Estimate 59.1
- 10:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Estimate 126.2
- 18:30 Australian AIG Manufacturing Index
*All release times are EDT
* Key events are in bold
AUD/USD for Monday, April 29, 2019
Open: 0.7043 High: 0.7061 Low: 0.7037 Close: 0.7048
AUD/USD ticked higher in the Asian session but has given up these gains in European trade
- 0.6970 is providing support
- There is resistance at 0.7085
- Current range: 0.6970 to 0.7085
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 0.6970, 0.6825 and 0.6744
- Above: 0.7085, 0.7190, 0.7240, and 0.7315
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