Reuters Poll Shows Fed to Cut Rates in 2020

The U.S. Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates until at least the end of next year, while about a third of economists polled by Reuters who had a view that far out predicted at least one rate cut by then.

The latest results come just days after Wall Street stocks touched record highs in a bounceback from a rout at the end of last year, thanks in large part to expectations that benchmark borrowing costs have now stopped in their tracks.

In a March 15 poll, more than 70 percent of economists had penciled in a hike this year. But a similar majority predicted no hikes or at least one rate cut by the end of 2020 in a March 29 survey, right after the Fed dramatically shifted its “dot plot” projections to suggest no more hikes this year.

The view the Fed’s tightening cycle, which began in December 2015, is over has strengthened further in the latest poll of more than 100 economists taken April 22-24. An increasing number of respondents are now predicting a rate cut by the end of 2020.

via Reuters

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza