Dollar extends rally as stocks drift off record closes

Stocks & USD – Dollar strength continues while stock rally pauses 

CAD – BOC vacates hawkish bias

Oil – Supply surge puts a dent in Iran sanction boost

Gold – Steadies as stocks fail to make fresh highs

Bitcoin – Tumbles after making fresh 2019 highs

Stocks & USD

Today’s main story was dollar strength.  The greenback’s gains were strong across the board with the exception to the Chinese yuan.  The dollar hit highs for 2019 against the yen and reached the best levels since the summer of 2017 with the euro.  The US economy still remains the most attractive option after today’s German IFO survey showed Germany is still not rebounding and the BOC rate decision highlighted the bank miscalculated the amount of weakness with the Canadian economy.

The Dow finished lower, while the Nasdaq initially made a record high, before turning lower.  After hours earnings results saw Facebook and Microsoft deliver strong results that could help drive tech stocks in Asia higher.  Tesla extended declines after results came short of expectations.

CAD

The Canadian dollar tumbled against of its major trading partners after the Bank of Canada (BOC) put an end to their tightening bias.  The central bank cut 2019 GDP forecast from 1.7% to 1.2% and maintained 2020 forecast at 2.1% and set 2021 at 2.0%.  The BOC removed the reference of future rate increases which was in every release since the end of 2017.

The Monetary Policy Report basically showed that the economy is worse off than the bank initially thought.  The neutral rate was revised lower and the main takeaway is that this was a very dovish rate decision.  Canada has been weak for several quarters and expectations and does not help that the bank dropped expectations for export and business investment growth this year.  Expectations are growing that the next move could be a rate cut, with the future implied probability at 32.6% for a cut at the September meeting.

The Canadian dollar fell across the board, but still managed to maintain a gain against the Australian dollar and kiwi, mainly due to the dismal CPI readings from down under.

Oil

Crude prices continue to come off those 6-month highs following the US EIA report that showed inventories jumped 5.48 million barrels last week, well above the highest estimates.  The run-up in prices that stemmed from the US ending of waivers on Iranian crude appears to have run its course.  Iran’s exports have fallen to 1.4 million barrels per day, down 50% from a year ago.  Iran’s production has fallen from 3.6 million barrels in September to 2.6 million barrels in March.

Oil may be ripe for a pullback, as inventories in both the US and Arab Gulf states appear to be rising and should compensate for lost production from Iran.

Gold

The precious metal showed some signs of life after stocks failed to make fresh record highs.  Today’s gain is also coinciding with a stronger US dollar, normally they have an inverse relationship.  The precious metal will need some stronger catalysts to sustain a move higher and that might be difficult as earnings results have not been painting a worse picture on the economy and trade talk optimism appears intact.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is down 2% on the day after making fresh highs for 2019.  The selloff in cryptocurrencies is broad based and some are attributing it to the reports that Ripple CTO David Schwartz is unloading his stack of cryptos.  

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Senior Market Analyst at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute fundamental analysis of geo-political events and monetary policies in the US, Europe, the Middle East and North Africa. Over the course of his career, he has worked with some of the world’s leading forex brokerages and research departments including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including BNN, CNBC, Fox Business, and Bloomberg. He is often quoted in leading print and online publications such as the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post. He holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University. Follow Ed on Twitter @edjmoya ‏
Ed Moya