EUR/USD – Euro dips on German manufacturing PMI decline

EUR/USD has lost ground on Thursday. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1252, down 0.41% on the day. It’s a busy day for fundamentals. German manufacturing PMI dropped to 44.5 in March, shy of the estimate of 45.2 points. The all-eurozone manufacturing PMI posted a decline of 47.8, missing the forecast of 48.1 points. Over in the U.S., consumer spending is expected to rebound in March. Retail sales is forecast to improve to 0.9% and core retail sales is projected to climb 0.7%. The Philly Fed manufacturing index is forecast to dip down to 11.2, while unemployment claims is projected to rise to 207 thousand. On Friday, the U.S. releases building permits and the Treasury Department releases the semi-annual currency report.

Services good. Manufacturing bad. There were no surprises from the German and eurozone PMIs for March. The manufacturing sector continues to post declines, as the global trade war has reduced demand for German and eurozone exports, and taken a toll on the auto industry. German manufacturing PMI has slowed for nine successive months, and the worrisome trend shows no signs of changing until the U.S and China hammer out a trade agreement. The services sector, which is more reflective of domestic demand, is in better shape. German services PMI improved to 55.6, while the eurozone indicator showed slight expansion, with a reading of 52.5 points.

Eurozone inflation is steady, but remains well below the ECB target of 2.0 percent. The eurozone annual inflation rate edged lower to 1.4% in March, compared to 1.5% in February. Low inflation means that the ECB is not under pressure to raise interest rates. After last week’s policy meeting, Mario Draghi noted that the economic outlook for the eurozone remains weak. With no interest hikes in sight and a sluggish eurozone economy, the euro will have likely have trouble making headway against the U.S. dollar.

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EUR/USD Fundamentals

Thursday (April 18)

• 2:00 German PPI. Estimate 0.2%. Actual -0.1%
• 3:15 French Flash Services PMI. Estimate 49.8 Actual 50.5
• 3:15 French Flash Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 50.0. Actual 49.6
• 3:30 German Flash Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 45.2. Actual 44.5
• 3:30 German Flash Services PMI. Estimate 55.0. Actual 55.6
• 4:00 Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 48.1. Actual 47.8
• 4:00 Eurozone Flash Services PMI. Estimate 53.1. Actual 52.5
• 8:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.7%
• 8:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.9%
• 8:30 US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Estimate 11.2
• 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 207K
• 9:45 US Flash Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 52.8
• 9:45 US Flash Services PMI. Estimate 55.0
• 10:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.3%
• 10:00 US CB Leading Index. Estimate 0.4%
• 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 82B

Friday (April 19)

• 8:30 US Building Permits. Estimate 1.30M
• 8:30 US Housing Starts. Estimate 1.23M
• Tentative – U.S. Treasury Currency Report

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Thursday, April 18, 2019

EUR/USD for April 18 at 6:15 DST

Open: 1.1298 High: 1.1304 Low: 1.1243 Close: 1.1252

EUR/USD Technical

EUR/USD was mostly flat in the Asian session and is down considerably in European trade

• 1.1212 is providing support
• 1.1300 is the next resistance line
• Current range: 1.1212 to 1.1300

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.1212, 1.1120 and 1.1046
• Above: 1.1300, 1.1434, 1.1553 and 1.1622

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