USD/CAD – Canadian dollar slips as U.S. inflation surges

The Canadian dollar has recorded considerable losses on Thursday. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3383, up 0.48% on the day. On the release front, the sole Canadian event is a minor housing report. In the U.S., PPI climbed 0.6%, above the estimate of 0.3%. Core PPI improved to 0.3%, edging above the forecast of 0.2%. Unemployment claims sparkled, dropping to 196 thousand, well below the estimate of 210 thousand. On Friday, the U.S. posts UoM consumer sentiment and the semi-annual Treasury currency report.

The Federal Reserve was in focus on Wednesday, with the release of the minutes from the March meeting. The Fed left the door open to rate hikes in 2019, provided that economic conditions improved. Some members said that they expected the economy to improve, while others said that rate movement could shift “in either direction based on incoming data and other developments”.

The IMF downgraded economic forecasts worldwide, and Canada was no exception. The IMF lowered its forecast for the Canadian growth from 1.9% to 1.5%. The report noted that Canada would be a major beneficiary if the U.S and China can hammer out a deal and end their bruising trade war. The IMF also lowered its forecast for global growth, from 3.5% to 3.3%.

Oil prices have dipped on Thursday, but remain close to 5-month highs. Civil unrest in Libya and Venezuela have tightened supplies, as have a cut in supplies by OPEC members. Canada is a major oil producer, so the rise in oil prices has helped bolster the Canadian currency, despite lukewarm Canadian data.

Markets continue to kick the can down the road

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Thursday (April 11)

• 8:30 Canadian NHPI. Estimate 0.0%. Actual 0.0%
• 8:30 US PPI. Estimate 0.3%. Actual 0.6%
  
• 8:30 US Core PPI. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.3%
  
• 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 210K. Actual 196K
• 9:30 US FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
• 9:35 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
• 9:40 US FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
• 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 32B
• 13:01 US 30-year Bond Auction.
• 16:00 US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks

Friday (April 12)

• 10:00 US UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 98.1
• Tentative – US Treasury Currency Report

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Thursday, April 11, 2019

USD/CAD, April 11 at 8:05 DST

Open: 1.3318 High: 1.3396 Low: 1.3313 Close: 1.3376

USD/CAD Technical

USD/CAD posted small gains in the Asian session and the trend continued in European trade. The pair has edged higher in North American trade

• 1.3290 is providing support
• 1.3383 is under pressure in resistance. It was tested earlier in the day
• Current range: 1.3290 to 1.3383

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.3290, 1.3200 and 1.3125
• Above: 1.3383, 1.3445, 1.3552 and 1.3662

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