EUR/USD – Euro shrugs as German industrial production rebounds

EUR/USD is subdued in Friday trade. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1230, up 0.09% on the day. In economic news, German industrial orders climbed 0.7%, edging above the forecast of 0.6%. In the U.S., the focus will be on employment numbers. Nonfarm payrolls is expected in at 172 thousand in March, after a dismal gain of 20 thousand in the previous release. Still, this estimate is significantly lower than the December and January releases, both of which were above the 300-thousand level. Wage growth is projected to gain 0.3%, lower than the 0.4% gain a month ago.

German manufacturing data has been weak, as the manufacturing sector struggles with the fallout of the nasty global trade war. This has dampened demand for German exports, such as vehicles and auto parts. German manufacturing PMI is showing contraction and factory orders have declined for four straight months. However, there was positive news on Friday, as industrial production posted a strong gain of 0.7%, ending a streak of four successive declines. The improvement is a result of a surge in construction, but with demand from abroad remaining soft, the manufacturing sector is likely to face further headwinds.

The ECB released the minutes of its March meeting on Thursday, and there was little surprise at the pessimistic tone of the minutes, hence the euro remained steady. Policymakers noted that economic data continued to be soft, highlighting the manufacturing sector. The minutes expressed concern about continuing global trade concerns, which has had a negative effect on the eurozone economy. As well, inflation is expected to remain low. With the ECB acknowledging that the economic outlook is poor, there is little likelihood of an interest rate hike before 2020.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Friday (April 5)

  • 2:00 German Industrial Production. Estimate 0.6%. Actual 0.7%
  • 2:45 French Trade Balance. Estimate -4.7B. Actual -4.0B
  • All Day – Eurogroup Meetings
  • 8:30 US Average Hourly Earnings. Estimate 0.3%
  • 8:30 US Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 172K
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Rate. Estimate 3.8%
  • 15:00 US Consumer Credit. Estimate 17.2B

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Friday, April 5, 2019

EUR/USD for April 5 at 5:20 DST

Open: 1.1221 High: 1.1237 Low: 1.1219 Close: 1.1230

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1046 1.1120 1.1212 1.1300 1.1434 1.1553

EUR/USD was flat in the Asian session and remains steady in European trade

  • 1.1212 remains a weak support level
  • 1.1300 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1.1212 to 1.1300

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1212, 1.1120, 1.1046 and 1.0951
  • Above: 1.1300, 1.1434 and 1.1553

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.