Gold dips as jobless claims sparkle

Gold has posted slight losses on Thursday. In North American trade, the spot price for one ounce of gold is $1287.99, down 0.14% on the day. In the U.S., the highlight was unemployment claims, which dropped to 202 thousand. This was below the forecast of 215 thousand. On Friday, the focus remains on U.S. employment data, with the release of nonfarm payrolls and wage growth.

Is the U.S. economy experiencing a slowdown? Key indicators have pointed lower, raising concerns about the strength of the economy. Retail sales and durable goods orders recorded declines and the trend continued on Wednesday. ADP nonfarm payrolls plunged to 129 thousand, down from 183 thousand in the previous release. Will the official nonfarm payrolls follow suit? Nonfarm payrolls are projected at 175 thousand, a soft number in comparison to recent releases. Wage growth is expected to slow to 0.2%. If these key indicators are softer than expected, the U.S. dollar could lose ground.

U.S-China trade talks have continued this week, and there is increasing optimism that a deal may be close at hand. The sides have made substantial progress, with reports that an agreement between the world’s two largest economies is 90% complete. The outstanding issues include enforcement mechanisms and the removal of trade tariffs. There has been positive news out of China this week, as manufacturing PMI posted a 14-month high, and the China 50 index has climbed to its highest level since March 2018. Further positive will raise investor risk appetite, which could spell headwinds for gold prices.

Trade deal hopes euphoria continues

Risk appetite increases on trade war breakthrough hope

XAU/USD Fundamentals

Thursday (April 4)

  • 7:30 US Challenger Job Cuts. Actual 0.4%
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 215K. Actual 202K
  • 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 2B. Actual 23B

Friday (April 5)

  • 8:30 US Average Hourly Earnings. Estimate 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 175K
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Rate. Estimate 3.8%

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

XAU/USD for Thursday, April 4, 2019

XAU/USD April 4 at 12:30 DST

Open: 1289.86 High: 1293.960 Low: 1280.98 Close: 1287.99

XAU/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1243 1261 1284 1306 1326 1344

XAU/USD edged higher in the Asian session but gave up these gains in the European session. The pair is down considerably in North American trade but has reversed directions and recovered most of these losses

  • 1284 is providing support
  • 1306 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1284 to 1306

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1284, 1261 and 1243
  • Above: 1306, 1326, 1344 and 1365

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.
Kenny Fisher

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