USD/CAD – Canadian dollar improves on stronger risk appetite

The Canadian dollar has looked sharp, with gains of 1.0% since Friday. Will the positive momentum continue on Tuesday? Currently, the pair is trading at 1.3316, up 0.07% on the day. On the release front, there are no Canadian events. In the U.S., core durable goods orders is expected to improve to 0.3%, while durable goods orders is forecast to plunge 1.1%. On Wednesday, the U.S. publishes ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and ADP nonfarm payrolls.

The Canadian dollar ended last week with strong gains, as Canada’s GDP posted a gain of 0.3% in January. This beat the estimate and came after two successive declines, which has raised concerns about the health of the Canadian economy. The slowdown in the fourth quarter has forced the BoC to turn more dovish and shelve any plans of hiking interest rates. There have even been calls for a rate cut from the bank, but the GDP gain in January will lessen the pressure on the BoC to stimulate the economy.

Positive data out of China this week has also boosted the fortunes of the Canadian dollar. Investor risk appetite has risen following a key manufacturing report that was better than expected. Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI improved to 50.8, easily beating the estimate of 50.1 points. Investors cheered as the indicator climbed to an 8-month high, after three successive readings in contraction territory. The Chinese economy has been hit hard by the trade war with the U.S., and a piece of good news sparked strong gains on the equity markets and boosted the Canadian dollar.

It’s all about China

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Tuesday (April 2)

• 8:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 0.3%
• 8:30 US Durable Goods Orders. Estimate -1.1%
• All Day – U.S. Total Vehicles Sales. Estimate 16.7M

Wednesday (April 3)

• 8:15 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 184K
• 10:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 58.1

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Tuesday, April 2, 2019

USD/CAD, April 2 at 7:55 EST

Open: 1.3308 High: 1.3337 Low: 1.3305 Close: 1.3316

USD/CAD Technical

USD/CAD ticked higher in the Asian session. In European trade, the pair posted small gains but has retracted

• 1.3290 is providing weak support
• 1.3383 has some breathing room in resistance after gains by USD/CAD
• Current range: 1.3290 to 1.3383

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.3290, 1.3200 and 1.3125
• Above: 1.3383, 1.3445, 1.3552 and 1.3662

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