USD/CAD – Canadian dollar steady, U.S durables next

The Canadian dollar has started the week with slight gains. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.3365, up 0.14% on the day. On the release front, Canada releases manufacturing PMI, which has slowed for three straight months. Will we see a rebound in the March release? In the U.S., retail sales are expected to tick up to 0.3%. On Tuesday, the U.S. posts durable goods orders.

The Canadian dollar ended the week with strong gains, as Canada’s GDP posted a gain of 0.3% in January. This beat the estimate and came after two successive declines, which has raised concerns about the health of the Canadian economy. The slowdown in the fourth quarter has forced the BoC to turn more dovish and shelve any plans of hiking interest rates. There has even been calls for a rate cut from the bank, but the GDP gain in January will lessen the pressure on the BoC to stimulate the economy.

Investors are keeping a close eye on the ebb and flow of the U.S.-China trade talks, which continues to affect the movement of currency markets. The negotiations between the sides continues and there have been reports of progress. However, optimism waned on Thursday, after a senior U.S. official said that it could be months before a deal is reached. These remarks have raised risk aversion and boosted the dollar.

Markets enter rally mode after China bounces back

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Monday (April 1)

  • 8:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.4%
  • 8:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.3%
  • 9:30 Canadian Manufacturing PMI
  • 9:45 US Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 52.5
  • 10:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI
  • 10:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.4%
  • 10:00 US Construction Spending. Estimate 0.1%
  • 10:00 US ISM Manufacturing Prices
  • 14:55 Canadian BoC Governor Poloz Speaks

Tuesday (April 2)

  • 8:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders.  Estimate 0.3%
  • 8:30 US Durable Goods Orders.  Estimate -1.1%

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Monday, April 1, 2019

USD/CAD, April 1 at 8:15 EST

Open: 1.3445 High: 1.3365 Low: 1.3338 Close: 1.3365

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.3125 1.3200 1.3290 1.3383 1.3445 1.3552

USD/CAD was flat in the Asian session and has posted small gains in European trade

  • 1.3290 is providing support
  • 1.3383 is a weak resistance line
  • Current range: 1.3290 to 1.3383

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3290, 1.3200 and 1.3125
  • Above: 1.3383, 1.3445, 1.3552 and 1.3662

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.