EUR/USD – Euro holds owns despite soft manufacturing PMIs

After a tough week, EUR/USD has started the week with slight gains. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1235, up 0.15% on the day. On the release front, it’s a busy day. German and eurozone manufacturing PMIs missed their estimates, with readings of 44.1 and 44.7, respectively. The Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate inflation in March came in at 1.5%, just shy of the estimate of 1.4%. In the U.S., retail sales are expected to tick up to 0.3%. On Tuesday, the eurozone releases PPI and the U.S. posts durable goods orders.

German and eurozone manufacturing sectors remain mired in contraction territory. This is largely due to the global trade war, which has lowered the demand for exports, such as German cars and auto parts. German manufacturing PMI dropped to 44.1, losing ground for an eighth straight month. This reading was the lowest since 2012. The all-eurozone release has also been steadily falling and is pointing to significant weakness in manufacturing.

Investors are keeping a close eye on the ebb and flow of the U.S.-China trade talks, which continues to affect the markets. The negotiations between the sides continues and there have been reports of progress. However, optimism waned on Thursday, after a senior U.S. official said that it could be months before a deal is reached. As long as uncertainty continues to swirl around the talks, traders can expect swings in the currency markets.

China data is no April Fools

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Monday (April 1)

  • 3:15 Spanish Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 49.8. Actual 50.9
  • 3:45 Italian Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 47.6. Actual 47.4
  • 3:50 French Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 49.8. Actual 49.7
  • 3:55 German Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 44.7. Actual 44.1
  • 4:00 Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 47.6. Actual 47.5
  • 4:00 Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate. Estimate 10.5%. Actual 10.7%
  • 5:00 Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate. Estimate 1.5%. Actual 1.4%
  • 5:00 Eurozone Core CPI Flash Estimate. Estimate 0.9%. Actual 0.8%
  • 5:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate. Estimate 7.8%. Actual 7.8%
  • 8:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.4%
  • 8:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.3%
  • 9:45 US Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 52.5
  • 10:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI
  • 10:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.4%
  • 10:00 US Construction Spending. Estimate 0.1%
  • 10:00 US ISM Manufacturing Prices

Tuesday (April 2)

  • 5:00 Eurozone PPI. Estimate 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders.  Estimate 0.3%
  • 8:30 US Durable Goods Orders.  Estimate -1.1%

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Monday, April 1, 2019

EUR/USD for April 1 at 7:00 DST

Open: 1.1218 High: 1.1250 Low: 1.1218 Close: 1.1234

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1046 1.1120 1.1212 1.1300 1.1434 1.1553

EUR/USD has posted slight gains in the Asian session and is showing limited movement in European trade

  • 1.1212 is providing support
  • 1.1300 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1.1212 to 1.1300

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1212, 1.1120 and 1.1046
  • Above: 1.1300, 1.1434, 1.1553 and 1.1610

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.