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EUR/USD – Euro steadies, key U.S. consumer data next

After three losing sessions, EUR/USD has steadied on Friday. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1225, up 0.01% on the day. On the release front, it’s a busy day on both sides of the pond. In Germany, retail sales slowed to 0.9%, but beat the estimate of -1.0%. Unemployment claims fell by 7,000, shy of the estimate of 10,000. The unemployment rate for March dipped to 4.9% from 5.0%, the lowest level since reunification in 1990. In the U.S., consumer data will be in focus, with the release of Core PCE Price Index, Personal Spending and UoM Consumer Sentiment.

Investors are keeping a close eye on the ebb and flow of the U.S.-China trade talks, which continues to affect the movement of currency markets. The negotiations between the sides continues and there have been reports of progress. However, optimism waned on Thursday, after a senior U.S. official said that it could be months before a deal is reached. These remarks have raised risk aversion and boosted the dollar.

Global trade tensions have weighed on inflation levels in the developed economies, and the U.S. is no exception. However, with the Fed saying it will put a hold on rates until 2020, could that change? At the Fed policy meeting, policymakers lowered their inflation forecast for 2020, citing weakness in the Chinese and European economies. However, the chief economist of Credit Suisse, James Sweeney, has taken a different tack, saying that U.S. inflation could climb as high as 2.3% next year, in response to the lack of rate hikes. Sweeney said that although inflation remains below the Fed target of 2.0%, there are signs in the services sector of inflation picking up.

A risk rally built on hope [1]

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Friday (March 29)

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Friday, March 29, 2019

EUR/USD for March 29 at 5:30 DST

Open: 1.1224 High: 1.1239 Low: 1.1222 Close: 1.1225

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1046 1.1120 1.1212 1.1300 1.1434 1.1553

EUR/USD ticked higher in the Asian session and is showing limited movement in European trade

Further levels in both directions:

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher [5]

Market Analyst at OANDA [6]
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including Investing.com, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.
Kenny Fisher

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