USD/JPY has edged higher on Wednesday. In the North American session, the pair is trading at 110.32, down 0.28% on the day. On the release front, there are no Japanese indicators. In the U.S., the trade deficit narrowed to $51.1 billion, better than expected. On Thursday, the U.S. releases Final GDP and unemployment claims. Japan will publish Tokyo Core CPI and retail sales.
The nasty trade war between the U.S. and China has hit Japan hard, as both countries are major trading partners with Japan. The weaker global climate has resulted in weaker demand for Japanese exports, and there are growing concerns that the fragile economy could be heading for a recession. Earlier in the week, the BoJ released the summary of opinions from the March policy meeting. Policymakers debated whether to ramp up stimulus in order to boost growth. Inflation levels remain sluggish, and the scheduled tax hike in October, which is certain to weigh on growth, poses another headache for policymakers.
After a sharply dovish Fed meeting last week, investors are in a sour mood. The Fed said that it had no plans to raise rates before 2019, and also lowered its growth forecast for 2019 to 2.1%, down from 2.3% in December. As well, the spread between 3-month and 10-year Treasury notes turned negative on Friday, signifying the dreaded inverted yield curve. This curve has preceded every U.S. recession over the past 60 years, so it’s no surprise that this has caused consternation among investors.
Wednesday (March 27)
- 8:30 US Trade Balance. Estimate -57.2B. Actual -51.1B
- Tentative – US Current Account. Estimate -130B
- 10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate -1.1M
- 17:30 US FOMC Member George Speaks
Thursday (March 28)
- 8:30 US Final GDP. Estimate 2.4%
- 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 222K
- 19:30 Tokyo Core CPI. Estimate 1.1%
- 19:50 Japanese Retail Sales. Estimate 0.9%
*All release times are EST
*Key events are in bold
USD/JPY for Wednesday, March 27, 2019
USD/JPY March 27 at 11:00 DST
Open: 110.64 High: 111.72 Low: 110.24 Close: 110.37
USD/JPY posted slight losses in the Asian session and edged higher in European trade. The pair has ticked higher early in North American trade
- 110.28 is providing support
- 110.90 is the next resistance line
- Current range: 110.28 to 110.90
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 110.28, 109.37 and 108.11
- Above: 110.90, 112.16, 112.93 and 113.70
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