USD/CAD – Canadian dollar unchanged on light-data calendar

The Canadian dollar is unchanged on Monday, after USD/CAD rallied late last week. In the North American session, the pair is trading at 1.3430, unchanged on the day. There are no economic indicators on the schedule. In the U.S., we’ll hear from two FOMC members. On Tuesday, the U.S. publishes building permits and CB consumer confidence.

The Canadian dollar ended the week on a sour note, as soft consumer spending data weighed on the currency. Retail sales fell 0.3% in January, marking a third straight decline. Core retail sales gained a negligible 0.1%, shy of the estimate of 0.2%. There was better news on the inflation front, as CPI posted a sharp gain of 0.7% in January, edging above the forecast of 0.6%. The negative effect of weak oil prices has eased, which could bode well for inflation numbers in the first quarter. Still, the outlook for the Canadian economy is cloudy, with the ongoing global trade war weighing on Canada’s export-reliant economy.

Is a recession in the cards for the U.S. economy? At last week’s policy meeting, the Federal Reserve indicated it had no plans to raise interest rates in 2019 and also lowered its growth forecast for 2019 to 2.1%, down from 2.3% in December. There was more bad news on Friday, as the spread between 3-month and 10-year Treasury notes turned negative for the first time since 2007. This is known as an inverted yield curve, which is considered a recession indicator. All eyes will be on U.S. Final GDP, which will be released on Thursday. If GDP is weaker than expected, investors could lose their risk apetite and the Canadian dollar could lose ground.

Asia extends Wall Street losses

PM May urged to set her own exit date to get Brexit deal

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Monday (March 25)

  • 2:00 US FOMC Member Evans Speaks
  • 20:30 US FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks

Tuesday (March 26)

  • 8:30 US Building Permits. Estimate 1.32M
  • 10:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Estimate 132.1

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Monday, March 25, 2019

USD/CAD, March 25 at 8:50 EST

Open: 1.3429 High: 1.3440 Low: 1.3404 Close: 1.3432

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.3200 1.3290 1.3383 1.3445 1.3552 1.3662

USD/CAD showed little movement in the Asian session. In European trade, the pair edged lower but recovered.

  • 1.3383 is providing support
  • 1.3445 is a weak resistance line
  • Current range: 1.3383 to 1.3445

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3383, 1.3290, 1.3200 and 1.3125
  • Above: 1.3445, 1.3552 and 1.3662

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.