Stocks slip as fears of global economic slowdown persist, overshadowing Trump’s Mueller win

Stocks dipped on Monday, struggling to find their footing after a sharp decline in the previous session, as worries over the global economy overshadowed news that the special counsel found no collusion with Russia on the part of President Donald Trump.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 98 points lower as Apple lagged. The S&P 500 declined 0.5 percent, led lower by the financials and tech sectors. The Nasdaq Composite, meanwhile, pulled back 0.6 percent.

Apple shares fell nearly 2 percent as the tech giant held an event in which it announced services such as a new news app, its own credit card and a bundle of video games.

Worries over the global economic outlook were stoked on Friday and lingered through Monday after the so-called yield curve inverted for the first time in more than a decade. The 3-month Treasury bill yield topped its 10-year counterpart on Friday, thus inverting the yield curve. Investors consider this to be a signal that a recession may be coming soon. Disappointing economic data released Friday out of Europe, coupled with a downgraded economic outlook from the Federal Reserve, added to those concerns.

The yield curve inverted again on Monday as the benchmark 10-year yield hit its lowest level since December 2017.

“Economies in Europe and China continue to deteriorate causing uneasiness that the problems overseas could affect the U. S. markets,” Bruce Bittles, chief investment strategist at Baird, wrote in a note. “There are signs that our economy is not as robust as last year such as the decline in capital spending in the third and fourth quarters of last year.”

Equities alternated between gains and losses for most of Monday as investors digested comments from Attorney General William Barr. On Sunday, he said special counsel Robert Mueller’s long-awaited investigation did not find enough evidence that Trump ‘s 2016 campaign colluded with Russia.

The White House also said the results are a “total and complete exoneration of the president of the United States.”

Mueller’s investigation had been a lingering concern for investors as it could have hindered Trump’s efforts to further cut taxes and further ease regulations on corporations. The news removes a worry for Wall Street and can help the administration focus on more pressing issues for the market, such as striking a trade deal with China or even working with Democrats on an infrastructure plan.

“This cloud has now dissipated and this should allow markets to breathe a sigh of relief,” said Jeff Kilburg, CEO of KKM Financial. “This could be a real positive for the market if it allows Trump to focus on getting the Chinese trade deal concluded.”

The investigation nagged the Trump administration for nearly two years. It led to the indictment and arrest of several Trump’s operatives, including ex-campaign manager Paul Manafort. Manafort was sentenced to 47 months in jail for fraud earlier this month.

Investors across the world worried the probe could also bring down Trump himself by potentially leading to his impeachment. Now, Wall Street can remove one block from the proverbial wall of worry and eye the ongoing U.S.-China trade talks.

China and the U.S. are expected to strike a deal sometime in April. Sentiment around the negotiations improved this year to help lift stocks to within striking distance of their record highs set last year. White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said Saturday that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer were headed to Beijing for further talks on Thursday. Trade worries plagued investors for most of last year as they worried a prolonged trade war between the world’s largest economies could hinder corporate profits.

Caterpillar shares rose more than 0.8 percent on Monday. The stock is seen by investors as a bellwether for trade conditions.

The S&P 500 is up more than 30 percent since Trump was elected in 2016. One key catalyst for the move higher in that time is a massive corporate tax cut signed by Trump in late 2017.

“Trump will remain in the White House until the 2020 elections, which means that the Trump tax rates will remain in until at least 2021,” said John Rutledge, chief investment officer at Safanad. “The positive effect on the market will be obscured, however, by the recent ugly economic news that made the Fed cave and inverted the yield curve. All in all, I think people will be buying defensive and income stocks.”


This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Senior Market Analyst, The Americas at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a senior market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute intermarket analysis, coverage of geopolitical events, central bank policies and market reaction to corporate news. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business and Sky TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most renowned global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Breitbart, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
Ed Moya