The Canadian dollar has started the week quietly. Early in Monday’s North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3321, down 0.12% on the day. On the release front, it’s a light day for fundamentals, so traders can expected an uneventful day from the pair. Canadian foreign securities purchases sparkled, with a reading of C$28.40 billion, well above the forecast of C$15.03 billion. This was the strongest gain in almost two years. The U.S. will release a minor housing report. On Tuesday, Canada releases its annual budget.
Is the Canadian economy heading into a recession? Despite some strong employment numbers, there are worrying signs. The economy recorded a weak 0.4% gain in Q4 on an annualized basis and has been listless early in 2019. David Wolf, a former senior official at BoC, has projected that the Canadian dollar could sink to its record low of 1.60 (62 cents U.S.). Weak oil prices and the global trade war have hurt the Canadian economy and dampened the critical export sector, and the Canadian dollar, which is down 1.40% in March, could face further headwinds.
With the U.S-China trade war showing signs of easing, there were expectations that President Trump and Chinese President Xi might hold a summit in late March. However, it was reported last week that the two leaders will not meet before April. President Trump has said that there will be news in the next 3-4 weeks, which has raised hopes that China and the U.S. will hammer out an agreement. If there are positive developments in the trade war, risk appetite will likely climb, which would be good news for the Canadian dollar.
Monday (March 18)
- 8:30 Canadian Foreign Securities Purchases. Estimate 15.03B. Actual 28.40B
- 10:00 US NAHB House Market Index. Estimate 63
Tuesday (March 19)
- 8:30 Canadian Annual Budget Release
*All release times are DST
*Key events are in bold
USD/CAD for Monday, March 18, 2019
USD/CAD, March 18 at 8:55 EST
Open: 1.3337 High: 1.3348 Low: 1.3302 Close: 1.3333
USD/CAD posted slight losses in the Asian session but has recovered in European trade. The pair is unchanged early in North American trade
- 1.3290 is providing support
- 1.3383 is the next resistance line
- Current range: 1.3290 to 1.3383
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.3290, 1.3200 and 1.3125
- Above: 1.3383, 1.3445, 1.3552 and 1.3662
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