USD/CAD – Canadian dollar listless as U.S. consumer inflation within expectations

The Canadian dollar is almost unchanged in the Tuesday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.3390, down 0.02% on the day. In economic news, there were no surprises from consumer inflation numbers. Core CPI edged down to 0.1%, shy of the estimate of 0.2%. CPI remained steady at 0.2%. On Wednesday, the U.S. publishes PPI and durable goods orders data. There are no Canadian events until Thursday.

The Canadian dollar lost close to 1.0% last week, but ended the week with gains and has continued the upward trend this week. On Friday, the U.S. economy posted a shocking nonfarm payroll report, with a gain of only 20 thousand jobs. The Canadian economy did much better, creating 55.9 thousand jobs, its second sharp gain in as many months. However, other key numbers have been soft, such as two successive GDP readings of -0.1%. The Bank of Canada has said that it expects the economy to improve, but the dovish rate statement from the BoC is a sign that policymakers are unlikely to raise rates before the second half of 2019. With no interest rate hikes on horizon, investor appetite for Canadian dollars could soften.

U.S. inflation numbers remain well below the Federal Reserve’s inflation target of 2.0 percent. This has given the Fed plenty of breathing room regarding rate hikes, as policymakers continue to signal that the Fed could hold off until the second half of the year. The Federal Reserve has become much more transparent since the days of Alan Greenspan, who cloaked his comments in confusing jargon, dubbed “fedspeak”. Jerome Powell was crystal clear on the Fed’s stance in a television interview on Sunday, saying that the Fed would remain patient and did not felt any hurry to change interest rate policy. The dovish stance of the Fed could weigh on the dollar, as a lack of rate hikes makes the greenback less attractive to investors.

Trade trembles and Brexit bumbling start the week

Brexit and sterling volatility expected

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Tuesday (March 12)

• 6:00 US NFIB Small Business Index. Estimate 102.0
• 8:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.2%.
  
• 8:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.1%
• 8:45 US FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
• 13:01 US 10-year Bond Auction

Wednesday (March 13)

• 8:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 0.1%
• 8:30 US Durable Goods Orders. Estimate -0.5%
• 8:30 US PPI. Estimate 0.2%
• 8:30 US Core PPI. Estimate 0.2%

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Tuesday, March 12, 2019

USD/CAD, March 12 at 8:50 EST

Open: 1.3394 High: 1.3417 Low: 1.3383 Close: 1.3391

USD/CAD Technical

USD/CAD was flat in the Asian session and has posted slight losses late in European trade

• 1.3383 is a weak support level
• 1.3445 is the next resistance line
• Current range: 1.3383 to 1.3445

Further levels in both directions:

• Below:1.3383, 1.3290, 1.3200 and 1.3125
• Above: 1.3445, 1.3552 and 1.3662

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