USD/CAD – Canadian dollar subdued as U.S. retail sales jump

The Canadian dollar is showing little movement in the Monday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.3423, up 0.04% on the day. In the U.S., retail sales rebounded in February. Core retail sales sparkled with a 0.9% gain, up from -1.8% in January. Retail sales improved to 0.2%, compared to -1.2% in the previous release. Both indicators beat their estimates. On Tuesday, the U.S. releases CPI numbers. There are no Canadian events until Thursday.

Canada and the U.S. both ended the week with key employment numbers, albeit with very different results. Canada added 55.9 thousand, crushing the estimate of 0.6 thousand. In the U.S., nonfarm payrolls plunged to 20 thousand, much worse than the forecast of 180 thousand. Wage growth improved to 0.4%, above the estimate of 0.3%. The Canadian dollar responded with slight gains on Friday, after rolling off five six losing sessions.

There were no surprises from the Bank of Canada last week. The bank stayed on the sidelines and maintained the benchmark rate at 1.75%, where rates have been pegged since October. The rate statement was dovish, as policymakers dropped a reference to rates rising over time. Instead, the bank said that the economy will continue to require stimulus and said that there was “increased uncertainty” about future rate hikes. The pessimistic language is a result of the economic slowdown, which has been worse than the bank anticipated. The BoC’s dovish tone has reinforced market expectations that the bank will not raise rates in the near future, and could lower rates if the economy continues to weaken. Canada’s GDP contracted by 0.1% in November and December, and another decline could send the Canadian dollar even lower.

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USD/CAD Fundamentals

Monday (March 11)

• 00:00 Fed Chair Powell Speaks
• 13:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.4%
• 13:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.0%
• 15:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.6%

Tuesday (March 12)

• 1:00 Fed Chair Powell Speaks
• 13:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.2%
• 13:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%

*All release times are EST

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Monday, March 11, 2019

USD/CAD, March 11 at 8:15 EST

Open: 1.3417 High: 1.3440 Low: 1.3406 Close: 1.3426

USD/CAD Technical

USD/CAD inched higher in the Asian session and is showing little movement in European trade

• 1.3383 is providing support
• 1.3445 is a weak resistance line
• Current range: 1.3383 to 1.3445

Further levels in both directions:

• Below:1.3383, 1.3290, 1.3200 and 1.3125
• Above: 1.3445, 1.3552 and 1.3662

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