USD/JPY – Japanese yen remains listless, Japanese GDP ahead

USD/JPY continues to have an uneventful week. In Wednesday’s North American session, the pair is trading at 111.71, down 0.16% on the day. On the release front, there are no major Japanese events. In the U.S., ADP nonfarm payrolls dipped to a 3-month low. The indicator fell to 183 thousand, down from 213 thousand in the previous release. On Thursday, the U.S. releases unemployment claims and Japan publishes household spending and fourth-quarter GDP.

In the U.S., the focus will be on February employment numbers for remainder of the week. ADP payrolls was a disappointment, and the official nonfarm payrolls could follow suit, as the key indicator is expected to slide to 185 thousand, after a strong gain of 304 thousand in January. However, analysts are expecting better news from other key numbers – wage growth is expected to improve to 0.3% and the unemployment rate is projected to dip to 3.9%.

The bitter trade battle between the U.S. and China may not be over, but there are clear signs that tensions between the two super-economies have eased considerably. Risk appetite remains strong, which could weigh on the yen, a safe-haven asset. At the same time, a breakthrough would herald a new trade relationship between the U.S. and China and would likely boost the lethargic Japanese economy. China is a key trading partner for Japan, and the slowdown in China has hurt the Japanese manufacturing and export sectors.

Euro trades softer as ECB looms

Dollar mixed after ECB cuts outlook and markets await US-China trade details

USD/JPY Fundamentals

Wednesday (March 6)

  • 8:15 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 190K. Actual 183K
  • 8:30 US Trade Balance. Estimate -57.8B. Actual -59.8B
  • 10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 1.2M. Actual 7.1M
  • 12:00 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
  • 14:00 US Beige Book
  • 22:35 Japanese 30-year Bond Auction

Thursday (March 7)

  • 00:00 Japanese Leading Indicators. Estimate 96.2%
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 225K
  • 18:30 Japanese Household Spending. Estimate -0.5%
  • 18:50 Japanese Final GDP. Estimate 0.4%

*All release times are EST

*Key events are in bold

USD/JPY for Wednesday, March 6, 2019

USD/JPY March 6 at 11:20 EST

Open: 111.90 High: 111.92 Low: 111.66 Close: 111.71

USD/JPY Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
109.37 110.28 110.90 112.16 112.93 113.70

In the Asian session, USD/JPY ticked lower but recovered in European trade. USD/JPY has posted small losses in the North American session

  • 110.90 is providing support
  • 112.16 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 110.90 to 112.16

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 110.90, 110.28, 109.37 and 108.11
  • Above: 112.16, 112.93 and 113.70

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.
Kenny Fisher

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