USD/JPY continues to have an uneventful week. In Wednesday’s North American session, the pair is trading at 111.71, down 0.16% on the day. On the release front, there are no major Japanese events. In the U.S., ADP nonfarm payrolls dipped to a 3-month low. The indicator fell to 183 thousand, down from 213 thousand in the previous release. On Thursday, the U.S. releases unemployment claims and Japan publishes household spending and fourth-quarter GDP.
In the U.S., the focus will be on February employment numbers for remainder of the week. ADP payrolls was a disappointment, and the official nonfarm payrolls could follow suit, as the key indicator is expected to slide to 185 thousand, after a strong gain of 304 thousand in January. However, analysts are expecting better news from other key numbers – wage growth is expected to improve to 0.3% and the unemployment rate is projected to dip to 3.9%.
The bitter trade battle between the U.S. and China may not be over, but there are clear signs that tensions between the two super-economies have eased considerably. Risk appetite remains strong, which could weigh on the yen, a safe-haven asset. At the same time, a breakthrough would herald a new trade relationship between the U.S. and China and would likely boost the lethargic Japanese economy. China is a key trading partner for Japan, and the slowdown in China has hurt the Japanese manufacturing and export sectors.
Wednesday (March 6)
- 8:15 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 190K. Actual 183K
- 8:30 US Trade Balance. Estimate -57.8B. Actual -59.8B
- 10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 1.2M. Actual 7.1M
- 12:00 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
- 14:00 US Beige Book
- 22:35 Japanese 30-year Bond Auction
Thursday (March 7)
- 00:00 Japanese Leading Indicators. Estimate 96.2%
- 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 225K
- 18:30 Japanese Household Spending. Estimate -0.5%
- 18:50 Japanese Final GDP. Estimate 0.4%
*All release times are EST
*Key events are in bold
USD/JPY for Wednesday, March 6, 2019
USD/JPY March 6 at 11:20 EST
Open: 111.90 High: 111.92 Low: 111.66 Close: 111.71
In the Asian session, USD/JPY ticked lower but recovered in European trade. USD/JPY has posted small losses in the North American session
- 110.90 is providing support
- 112.16 is the next resistance line
- Current range: 110.90 to 112.16
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 110.90, 110.28, 109.37 and 108.11
- Above: 112.16, 112.93 and 113.70
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