EUR/USD – Euro dips in data-light Monday

EUR/USD has edged lower in the Monday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1338, down 0.24% on the day. There are no major events out of the eurozone or the U.S., so traders can expect limited movement from the pair on Monday. On Tuesday, Germany and the eurozone will publish services PMIs, and the U.S. releases ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

Germany is a bellwether for the rest of the eurozone, and Friday’s data pointed to a strong labor market but trouble in the manufacturing sector. On the employment front, German unemployment rolls fell by 21 thousand, crushing the estimate of -5 thousand. The eurozone unemployment rate dropped to 7.8% in January, down from 7.9% a month earlier. The manufacturing industry continues to struggle, as the global trade war has reduced the demand for European exports. German and eurozone manufacturing PMIs in February came in below the 50-mark, which separates contraction from expansion. German consumers opened up the purse strings in January, as retail sales bounced back with a 3.3% gain, after a 4.3% decline in December.

In the U.S., Friday’s numbers were a disappointment, but the dollar still held its own. Personal Spending declined 0.5%, its first decline in almost three years. The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 54.2, short of the estimate of 55.6 points. As well, UoM consumer sentiment improved to 93.8, but still missed the forecast of 95.8 points. The focus will be on employment numbers this week, starting with ADP nonfarm payrolls on Wednesday.

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EUR/USD Fundamentals

Monday (March 4)

  • 3:00 Spanish Unemployment Change. Estimate 5.0K. Actual 3.3K
  • 4:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence. Estimate -3.1. Actual -2.2
  • 5:00 Eurozone PPI. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.4%
  • 10:00 U.S. Construction Spending. Estimate 0.2%

Tuesday (March 5)

  • 3:55 German Final Services PMI. Estimate 55.1
  • 4:00 Eurozone Services PMI. Estimate 52.3
  • 5:00 Eurozone Retail Sales. Estimate 1.3%
  • 10:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 57.4

*All release times are EST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Monday, March 4, 2019

EUR/USD for March 4 at 6:45 EST

Open: 1.1365 High: 1.1383 Low: 1.1334 Close: 1.1338

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1120 1.1212 1.1300 1.1434 1.1553 1.1685

EUR/USD ticked higher in the Asian session but then retracted. The pair is slightly lower in European trade

  • 1.1300 is providing support
  • 1.1434 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1.1300 to 1.1434

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1300, 1.1212, 1.1120 and 1.1046
  • Above: 1.1434, 1.1553 and 1.1685

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.
Kenny Fisher

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