Goldman Sachs Says US Economy to Decelerate

In the face of a slowing economy, companies with low operating leverage should outperform, according to Goldman Sachs.

Companies with low operating leverage tend to have higher costs associated with more sales, but they have lower fixed costs to cover each month. So when companies are experiencing a drag on sales from a slowing economy, those with low operating leverage will be less affected, Goldman said.

“U.S. economic growth has sharply decelerated since early December. In the current macro environment, we recommend investors own stocks with low operating leverage and sell companies with high operating leverage,” Goldman’s chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin said in the note. “Low operating leverage firms are those with the smallest share of fixed costs as a percent of revenue.”

Recent weak economic data including retail sales have forced Wall Street analysts and economists to slash their growth forecasts, which have come down at a fast pace. J.P. Morgan economists last week cut their forecasts for first quarter growth to 1.5 percent while many others see growth holding just above 2 percent. Consensus earnings growth estimates for S&P 500 firms have also been cut drastically as the first-quarter growth forecast has turned negative.

via CNBC

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza