DAX dips as investors eye US-China trade talks

The DAX index continues to have a quiet week. In the Tuesday session, the DAX is at 11,260, down 0.35% on the day. In economic news, German ZEW economic sentiment improved slightly to -13.4, beating of the estimate of -14.1 points. The all-eurozone release followed the same trend, improving to -16.6, which was above the forecast of -18.2 points. On Wednesday, the FOMC releases the minutes of its January policy meeting.

After posting strong gains on Friday, the DAX has given up some ground. Bank and automotive shares are in the red on Tuesday. Deutsche Bank has plunged 2.85%, while Daimler and Volkswagen have declined over 1.0%. Investors are keeping a close look at U.S-China trade talks, which continue this week in Washington. This will be the fourth round of talks, as the sides look to ease trade tensions after months of tit-for tat tariffs which have hurt global growth and rocked the stock markets. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin joined the talks last week and called the negotiations “productive”. If there are tangible signs of progress, risk appetite could jump and send the equity markets higher.

The ZEW economic sentiment surveys remains mired in deep freeze, as investors and analysts are pessimistic about the economic outlook in Germany and the eurozone. There is a silver lining in the German release, as the readings have improved steadily over the past four months – back in October, the score was -24.7 points. In the first quarter of 2018, the readings were in positive territory, as the German economy was performing well. However, optimism then dissipated, as the global trade war intensified and the German economy slowed. It has been a similar story with the eurozone, as ZEW economic sentiment scores have been in negative territory since the second half of 2018.

Economic Calendar

Tuesday (February 19)

  • 4:00 Eurozone Current Account. Estimate 21.4B. Actual 16.2B
  • 5:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Estimate -14.1. Actual -13.4
  • 5:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment. Estimate -18.2. Actual -16.6

Wednesday (February 20)

  • 2:00 German PPI. Estimate -0.2%
  • 10:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence
  • 14:00 US FOMC Meeting Minutes

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

DAX, Tuesday, February 19 at 6:50 EST

Previous Close: 11,299 Open: 11,276 Low: 11,255 High: 11,372 Close: 11,260

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Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.