US Consumer Confidence falls to 120.2 v 124.0 eyed and 128.1 prior

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index decreased in January, following a decline in December. The Index now stands at 120.2 (1985=100), down from 126.6 in December. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – declined marginally, from 169.9 to 169.6. The Expectations Index – based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income,

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was January 17.

“Consumer Confidence declined in January, following a decrease in December,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The Present Situation Index was virtually unchanged, suggesting economic conditions remain favorable. Expectations, however, declined sharply as financial market volatility and the government shutdown appear to have impacted consumers. Shock events such as government shutdowns (i.e. 2013) tend to have sharp, but temporary, impacts on consumer confidence. Thus, it appears that this month’s decline is more the result of a temporary shock than a precursor to a significant slowdown in the coming months.”

Consumers’ appraisal of current conditions was little changed in January. The percentage of consumers claiming business conditions are “good” was virtually unchanged at 37.4 percent, while those saying business conditions are “bad” decreased from 11.6 percent to 11.1 percent. Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was mixed. Those stating jobs are “plentiful” increased from 45.5 percent to 46.6 percent, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” also increased, from 12.2 percent to 12.9 percent.

Consumers’ optimism about the short-term future was more pessimistic in January. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions will improve over the next six months decreased from 18.1 percent to 16.0 percent, while those expecting business conditions will worsen increased from 10.6 percent to 14.8 percent.

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was also less favorable. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead decreased from 16.6 percent to 14.7 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs increased, from 14.6 percent to 16.5 percent. Regarding their short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers expecting an improvement declined from 22.4 percent to 18.2 percent, but the proportion expecting a decrease also declined, from 7.6 percent to 7.1 percent.

Conference Board

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Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Senior Market Analyst at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute fundamental analysis of geo-political events and monetary policies in the US, Europe, the Middle East and North Africa. Over the course of his career, he has worked with some of the world’s leading forex brokerages and research departments including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including BNN, CNBC, Fox Business, and Bloomberg. He is often quoted in leading print and online publications such as the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post. He holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University. Follow Ed on Twitter @edjmoya ‏
Ed Moya