EUR/USD – Dollar retreats after dovish Fed, ECB minutes next

EUR/USD is down slightly in the Thursday session, after posting strong gains on Wednesday. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1527, down 0.13% on the day. On the release front, the ECB releases the minutes of its December policy meeting. In the U.S., unemployment claims are expected to drop to 231 thousand, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak at event in Washington. On Friday, the U.S. releases CPI reports, which should be treated as market-movers.

The ECB will be in the spotlight for the first time this year, with the release of the December minutes. At this meeting, policymakers finally terminated QE, the bank’s massive stimulus program. Now that the ECB has weaned the eurozone economy off stimulus, investors will be interested in the bank’s view of the economy – are growth prospects forecast to improve? Although the eurozone export and manufacturing sectors have softened due to the global trade war, the euro escaped the fourth quarter with only small losses. If the minutes are hawkish, the euro could capitalize and head higher.

The U.S. dollar’s retreat continued on Wednesday, after the release of the FOMC minutes of the December meeting. At the meeting, the Fed raised rates for a fourth time in 2018, culminating a very aggressive stance. This was reflected in the rate statement, but then came the thumbs-down from investors, who wanted a more dovish approach, and sent the equity markets into a tailspin. Fed policymakers have since made a sharp U-turn and are sounding much more cautious about future rate hikes. The minutes noted low inflation meant that the Fed can “afford to be patient about further policy firming”. Even more striking, the minutes revealed that at the December meeting, some policymakers opposed a rate hike, arguing that inflation was too low to warrant higher rates. The new dovish stance from the Fed has relieved investors and helped stabilize the stock markets, but has hurt the U.S. dollar, with some analysts predicting a cut in rates late this year.

Markets pause for breath after Fed minutes

A confusing state of affairs? NO!!

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Thursday (January 10)

  • 2:45 French Industrial Production. Estimate 0.0%. Actual -1.3%
  • 4:05 Italian Retail Sales. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.7%
  • 5:01 French 10-year Bond Auction. Actual 0.68%
  • 7:30 ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 226K
  • 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate -62B
  • 12:40 US FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
  • 12:45 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
  • 13:01 US 30-year Bond Auction
  • 19:00 US FOMC Member Clarida Speaks

Friday (January 11)

  • 8:30 US CPI. Estimate -0.1%
  • 8:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%

*All release times are EST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Thursday, January 10, 2019

EUR/USD for January 10 at 5:55 EST

Open: 1.1543 High: 1.1570 Low: 1.1522 Close: 1.1527

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1212 1.1300 1.1434 1.1553 1.1685 1.1803

EUR/USD posted small gains in the Asian session but has given up these gains in European trade

  • 1.1434 is providing support
  • 1.1553 has weakened in resistance
  • Current range: 1.1434 to 1.1533

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1434, 1.1300, 1.1212 and 1.1120
  • Above: 1.1553, 1.1685 and 1.1803

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.