Oil continues to rise as OPEC output falls most in 2 years

Oil is having a positive start to the year as OPEC appears to be delivering on their pledge of production cuts.  Earlier in Asia, crude prices were heavy as disappointing data from China confirmed weakness in the second largest economy was accelerating.  West Texas Intermediate fell to the session low after Russian production for December rose 4.5% to a record high of 11.45 million barrels per day, slightly more than 11.42 million bpd that was speculated in the middle of last month.  Russia is not an OPEC member, but has agreed to cooperate with production cuts with OPEC and their allies.

The strong rebound in oil stemmed initially from the positive move in risk appetite during the New York open.  The rise in prices accelerated after news that OPEC’s oil output in December fell the most in two years.  The focus was on Saudi Arabia, who delivered 420,000 barrels per day in cuts to 10.65M bpd.    OPEC production fell by a total of 530,000 bpd to 32.6 million bpd.

The Canadian dollar is also firmer by 0.5% to 1.3581, last year was the loonie’s worst performance to the greenback in three years.

The pummeled commodity is now extending its gains from the key Christmas Eve low of $42.36.  That low was made on thin volume and could be the bottom for oil prices in the medium-term.  The WTI daily chart shows that if bullish momentum continues, it could find resistance at the $49.70 level.  It is around that area that price could form a bearish Gartley pattern.  Point D is targeted with the 70.7% Fibonacci retracement level of the X to A leg and the 200% Fibonacci expansion level of the B to C move.  If valid, we could see a pullback towards the $46.90 region.  If the reversal pattern is invalidated, key resistance will come from the $52.50 level.


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Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Senior Market Analyst, The Americas at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a senior market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute intermarket analysis, coverage of geopolitical events, central bank policies and market reaction to corporate news. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business and Sky TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most renowned global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Breitbart, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
Ed Moya