EUR/USD has posted gains in the Friday session, after posting considerable gains on Thursday. On the release front, Germany will publish Preliminary CPI, a key gauge of consumer inflation. The indicator slipped to 0.1% in November, but is expected to improve to 0.3% in December. In the U.S., today’s key event is Chicago PMI, which is expected to slip to 61.4 in December, down from 66.4 a month ago.
The euro has performed well in recent weeks and is on track to end December with gains of above 1 percent. This positive trend is all the more impressive, given the turmoil that has gripped the equity markets, as well as lukewarm data in the eurozone and Germany. Global stock markets have taken investors on a roller coaster ride, which has helped boost the greenback as risk appetite has soured. Eurozone and German economic activity has been hampered by the global trade war, which has taken a bite out of the export sector and dampened consumer confidence. As well, the Italian budget crisis and Brexit remain serious headaches for policymakers, but the euro has proven to be surprisingly resilient in the face of these challenges. The ECB has given the eurozone economy a vote of confidence by wrapping up its stimulus program, and if economic activity improves early in the New Year, the euro could make inroads against the dollar.
Investor risk appetite has improved, following reports on Wednesday that a U.S. delegation would travel to China to hold trade talks in the first week of January. The ongoing trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies has caused havoc in the equity markets and boosted the U.S dollar against its rivals. President Trump has agreed to suspend further tariffs on China while the sides are talking. A breakthrough might be too tall an order, but the fact that the sides are meeting face-to-face for the first time in months will likely improve the mood of jittery investors.
Friday (December 28)
- All Day – German Preliminary CPI. Estimate 0.3%
- 3:00 Spanish Flash CPI. Estimate 1.6%. Actual 1.2%
- Tentative – Italian 10-year Bond Auction
- 9:45 US Chicago PMI. Estimate 61.4
- 10:00 US Pending Home Sales. Estimate 0.9%
- 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate -50B
- 11:00 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate -2.9M
*All release times are EST
*Key events are in bold
EUR/USD for Friday, December 28, 2018
EUR/USD for December 28 at 5:55 EST
Open: 1.1431 High: 1.1471 Low: 1.1428 Close: 1.1468
In the Asian session, EUR/USD ticked lower but reversed directions and posted gains
- 1.1468 is providing support
- 1.1553 is the next resistance line
- Current range: 1.1434 to 1.1553
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.1434, 1.1300, 1.1212 and 1.1120
- Above: 1.1553, 1.1685 and 1.1803
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