Case-Shiller real estate numbers come in better than expected: Phoenix replaces Seattle in top 3 cities

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.5% annual gain in October, remaining the same from the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 4.7%, down from 4.9% in the previous month. The 20City Composite posted a 5.0% year-over-year gain, down from 5.2% in the previous month.

Las Vegas, San Francisco and Phoenix reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In October, Las Vegas led the way with a 12.8% year-over-year price increase, followed by San Francisco with a 7.9% increase and Phoenix with a 7.7% increase. Six of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending October 2018 versus the year ending September 2018.

The charts on the following page compare year-over-year returns of different housing price ranges (tiers) for the top two cities, Las Vegas and San Francisco.


Month-over-Month

Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.1% in October. The 10-City and 20-City Composites did not report any gains for the month. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.5% month-over-month increase in October. The 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite posted 0.5% and 0.4% month-over-month increases, respectively. In October, nine of 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustment, while 18 of 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.

Analysis
“Home prices in most parts of the U.S. rose in October from September and from a year earlier,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The combination of higher mortgage rates and higher home prices rising faster than incomes and wages means fewer people can afford to buy a house. Fixed rate 30-year mortgages are currently 4.75%, up from 4% one year earlier. Home prices are up 54%, or 40% excluding inflation, since they bottomed in 2012. Reduced affordability is slowing sales of both new and existing single family homes. Sales peaked in November 2017 and have drifted down since then.
“The largest gains were seen in Las Vegas where home prices rose 12.8% in the last 12 months, compared to an average of 5.3% across the other 19 cities. This is a marked change from the housing collapse in 2006-12 when Las Vegas was the hardest hit city with prices down 62%. After the last recession, Las Vegas diversified its economy by adding a medical school, becoming a regional center for health care, and attracting high technology employers. Employment is increasing 3% annually, twice as fast as the national rate.”

S&P Dow Jones Indexes

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Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Senior Market Analyst, The Americas at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a senior market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute intermarket analysis, coverage of geopolitical events, central bank policies and market reaction to corporate news. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business and Sky TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most renowned global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Breitbart, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
Ed Moya