USD/CAD – Canadian dollar subdued, U.S jobless claims sparkles

The Canadian dollar has ticked lower in the Thursday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3368, up 0.10% on the day. On the release front, Canada’s New Housing Price Index remained flat for a third straight month, matching the forecast. In the U.S, unemployment claims dropped sharply to 206 thousand, well below the estimate of 226 thousand. On Friday, the U.S. releases retail sales reports.

U.S. inflation was flat in November, dropping from 0.3 percent a month earlier. This marked the lowest level since May. Core CPI remained pegged at 0.2 percent. The weak readings can be attributed to falling oil prices, which has led to a sharp decline in gasoline prices. On an annualized basis, inflation gained 2.2 percent in November, down from 2.5 percent in October. With the U.S. economy showing signs of slowing down, and the global trade war taking a bite out of the global economy, inflation could continue to head lower as we head into 2019.

The Bank of Canada remains in caution mode, even after strong employment numbers last week. The economy created over 94 thousand jobs, crushing the estimate of 10.1 thousand. As well, the unemployment rate dropped from 5.8 percent to 5.6 percent. However, all is not well with the economy, as GDP declined 0.1% in September, the second decline this year. The bank held interest rates at its policy meeting last week and is expected to do so again in January.

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USD/CAD Fundamentals

Thursday (December 13)

  • 8:30 Canadian NHPI. Estimate 0.0%. Actual 0.0%
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 226K. Actual 206K
  • 8:30 US Import Prices. Estimate -1.0%. Actual -1.6%
  • 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate -81B
  • 13:01 US 30-year Bond Auction
  • 14:00 US Federal Budget Balance. Estimate -193.5B

Friday (December 14)

  • 8:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.1%

*All release times are EST

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Thursday, December 13, 2018

USD/CAD, December 13 at 10:10 EST

Open: 1.3351 High: 1.3385 Low: 1.3344 Close: 1.3368

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.3099 1.3198 1.3292 1.3382 1.3461 1.3552

USD/CAD was flat in the Asian session and has ticked higher in European trade. The pair is steady in North American trade

  • 1.3292 is providing support
  • 1.3382 is a weak resistance line
  • Current range: 1.3292 to 1.3382

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3292, 1.3198 and 1.3099
  • Above: 1.3382, 1.3461, 1.3552 and 1.3696

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.