EUR/USD – Euro gains ground as German trade surplus beats estimate

EUR/USD has started the week with gains. In the Monday session, the pair is trading at 1.1418, up 0.34% on the day. There are no major releases out of the eurozone or the United States. Germany’s trade surplus fell to EUR 17.3 billion, edging above the estimate of EUR 17.2 billion. The Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence posted a decline of 0.3, well short of the estimate of 8.4 points. The sole event in the U.S. is JOLTS Job Openings. The indicator is expected to improve to 7.22 million, after the previous release of 7.01 million. On Tuesday, German ZEW Economic Sentiment is expected to weaken to 25.0 points. In the U.S, the Producer Prices Index is forecast to drop to 0.0%.

The U.S. ended the week with dismal employment numbers, although the euro couldn’t take advantage and was unchanged on Friday. Nonfarm employment change was weaker than expected, plunging from 250 thousand to 155 thousand. This was well off the forecast of 198 thousand. Wage growth remained stuck at 0.2%, missing the estimate of 0.3%. There was better news from the unemployment rate, which remained at a sizzling 3.7%. The data points to slowing growth in the U.S, which could lead to a change in monetary policy. The Federal Reserve minutes from the November meeting indicated that policymakers discussed changing their stance of gradual increases rate increases. The markets are currently looking at one rate hike next year – just a few months ago, there was talk of a rate hike in each quarter of 2019.

Global stock markets had a dismal week, as nervous investors continue to fret over the U.S-China trade war. Although President Trump agreed to suspend further tariffs against China for 90 days. However, there are concerns that the two sides will not be able to close the gaps in their positions in just a few weeks. The markets soured on Thursday, after a senior Chinese executive, Meng Wanzhou, was arrested in Vancouver for allegedly violating trade sanctions against Iran. Wanzhou faces extradition to the U.S., and China’s indignant response to the arrest could torpedo upcoming trade talks between the two countries.

Aussie dips as China trade slows

European open – Tough week for UK and markets


EUR/USD Fundamentals

Monday (December 10)

  • 2:00 German Trade Balance. Estimate 17.2B. Actual 17.3B
  • 4:00 Italian Industrial Production. Estimate -0.4%. Actual 0.1%
  • 4:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence. Estimate 8.4. Actual -0.3
  • 10:00 US JOLTS Openings. Estimate 7.22M

Tuesday (December 11)

  • 5:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Estimate -25.0
  • 5:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment. Estimate -23.2
  • 8:30 US PPI. Estimate 0.0%
  • 8:30 US Core PPI. Estimate 0.1%

*All release times are EST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Monday, December 10, 2018

EUR/USD for December 10 at 6:50 EST

Open: 1.1379 High: 1.1443 Low: 1.1379 Close: 1.1418


EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1120 1.1212 1.1300 1.1434 1.1553 1.1685

EUR/USD ticked lower in the Asian session and has recovered in European trade

  • 1.1300 is providing support
  • 1.1434 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1.1300 to 1.1434

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1300, 1.1212, 1.1120 and 1.0992
  • Above: 1.1434, 1.1553 and 1.1685

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.