The DAX index has posted slight losses in the Wednesday session. Currently, the DAX is trading at 11,331, up 0.20% on the day. On the release front, German GfK consumer climate dipped to 10.4 points, shy of the estimate of 10.5 points. The U.S. releases Preliminary GDP, with an estimate of 3.6%. On Thursday, German Preliminary CPI is expected to remain at 0.2%. As well, Germany releases unemployment change and the ECB will publish its financial stability review.
Investors are keeping an eye of the G-20 summit in Argentina, which begins on Friday. President Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, and the stakes could not be higher, given the full-blown trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Will we see a thaw in the tariff spat, or will Trump and Xi take shots at each other’s policies? Last week, White House advisor Larry Kudlow warned that the summit could be the scene of a direct confrontation between the parties. However, President Trump has a knack of reaching agreements with his adversaries despite hostile rhetoric, so it’s entirely possible that the parties will agree to keep negotiating, which could lift the mood of investors and boost the equity markets.
In Germany, confidence indicators are down in November, raising concerns about the strength of the economy. GfK consumer climate dropped to 10.4 points, its weakest level since May 2017. Earlier in the week, Ifo Business Climate dropped to 102.3, missing the forecast of 102.0 points. This marked a 4-month low. The ongoing U.S-China trade war has hurt the German export sector, as German companies that export to both the U.S. and China are now facing higher tariffs. Germany’s economy posted a rare decline in the third quarter, with a contraction of 0.2%. Another problem is lower eurozone growth, as weak economic activity in the third quarter appears to be the story in the fourth quarter. As well, the looming departure of Britain from the European Union and the crisis over the Italian budget have weighed on German business and consumer confidence levels.
Wednesday (November 28)
- 2:00 German GfK Consumer Climate. Estimate 10.5. Actual 10.4
- 4:00 Eurozone M3 Money Supply. Estimate 3.5%. Actual 3.9%
- 4:03 Eurozone Private Loans. Estimate 3.2%. Actual 3.2%
- 5:34 German 10-year Bond Auction. Estimate 0.34/1.6
- 8:30 US Preliminary GDP. Estimate 3.6%
Thursday (November 29)
- All Day – German Preliminary CPI. Estimate 0.2%
- 3:00 ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks
- 3:55 German Unemployment Change. Estimate -10K
- Tentative – ECB Financial Stability Review
*All release times are DST
*Key events are in bold
DAX, Wednesday, November 28 at 7:50 EST
Open: 11,355 Low: 11,358 High: 11,285 Close: 11,331
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